Well, I've been right about gold since 2003, when I began following that sector.
However, I was not expecting gold mining stocks to fall with everything else as they did last year. That was a big setback .
Gold has climbed from the $250 range to its present $900-1000 range during that period, and can easily go much higher.
The problem with the miners is that their production costs have been rising quite a lot, and they have to access large amounts of capital, so they are vulnerable to the credit freeze also.
That being said, gold stocks have well outperformed other sectors this year, and if gold keeps climbing, the gold stocks could do very well. For example, gold stocks outperformed during the great depression, even though gold ownership was outlawed.
The reason gold is a good investment is that governments around the world are literally printing money to bail out everything. That makes money worth less, and gold worth more. For example, at the turn of the millennium, there were about $4 trillion US dollars in circulation. That figure has now gone to $15 trillion. The US government now owes about $30 trillion, and it is more bankrupt than General Motors – only high inflation will make current government debts payable.
Follow an advisor named John Doody who identifies the gold stocks he thinks will do best. Some of the bigger names on his list are Goldcorp (their main mine is very near where we live), Royal Gold, Franco Nevada and Yamana Gold. Any of these will do well over the next several years.
In the silver sector, Pan American Silver is the big name. Two companies with very large undeveloped silver deposits are Mines Management, which I mentioned to you earlier, and First Majestic. Silver usually lags gold in the early stages, as is occurring now, then overtakes and outperforms gold, as it is a smaller market.
For market analysis, I think the best overall newsletter is written by Pamela and Mary Ann Aden. Doody’s “Gold Stock Analyst” is the best gold mining advisory. For daily market analysis, look at Bill Fleckenstein. You can find any of these with a quick Google search. You have to pay several hundred dollars per year for these advisories. Fleckenstein is cheapest, and Doody most expensive.
As far as timing, the Adens describe four cycles in the gold price. The gold price is presently in what they consider a “modest” down cycle. This modest weakness is usually followed after a few weeks or a couple of months by gold’s strongest rise, which may run for several months. The question this year is whether gold goes to $1200 or $1500 or higher. My own bias is actually slightly higher - in the 1600$ range. That move will drive the gold stocks quite powerfully. After their (irrational) weakness last year, gold stocks should be this year’s best performing sector. The best time to buy would have been November 2008. However, the present period, including likely the next few weeks, should also be a good time to buy at lower prices.
I find timing the most difficult aspect of investing, and I don't think anybody is on top of how to do that. It’s always a guess as to when... is the best time to buy or sell. However, it is possible – not certain – that gold stocks might do very well this year in particular...
(If this sounds like an addictive cycle - don't be surprised - it is! Why else would we now be outlawing short-selling while legally-sanctioned accounting methods do not stop short of permitting full scale financial misrepresentation? The fraudsters are protected by the SEC while those who engage in critiquing and selling such practices short are punished. The regulatory system itself is operating in reverse - taking us further down the garden path through protecting the most egregious corporate risk-takers.)
In the meantime, popular demand for gold is running at its highest levels in 30 years. Gold is returning to the hands of the public at such a torrid pace that the forms of physical gold most favoured by small investors (coins and small bullion products) are now in extremely short supply.
Kitco, Canada's largest bullion dealer, is presently posting the following announcement: "The following products have been temporarily removed from our Precious Metal Store until further notice due to production and delivery delays that retailers are currently facing; 1 oz Gold bars, 1 oz Kitco Gold bars, 10 oz Gold bars, 1 oz Silver Eagles, 1 oz Silver Maples, 1 oz Silver Philharmonic coins, 1 oz Olympic Silver Maples, 100 oz Silver bars and 1 oz Palladium Maples."
"Since announcing this new program two weeks ago, the Fed has received about $350 billion from the Treasury. Additional factors of decrease include about $80 billion in deposits that came into the Fed during September via reverse repos and 'other' deposits, a $26 billion decline in outstanding repos and about $4 billion in currency (cash) leaving the banking system. The NET factor of increase to reserve bank credit for the month of September was about $170 billion. That is money created out of thin air... unsterilized."
To translate... Mr. Bugos is saying that the Federal Reserve has been trying to keep money flowing without increasing the supply of money. The reason is that increasing evidence of inflation has been making it more difficult for the Fed to rationalize money supply growth, which of course is the primary driver of inflation. However, faced with "the end of the world as we know it," the Fed has become ever so willing to drive the money supply through the roof, once again creating massive inflation. Why? To prevent a probable financial meltdown. What caused the meltdown in the first place? Glad you asked! It was the Fed's money supply increase in the first place... which financed excessive government spending and the excessive accumulation (and disregard) of risk on both Wall Street and Main Street....
Folks, we have one big national and international dysfunctional family here!
Read Mr. Bugos' article in full here. For a commentary on his analysis, click here.
In fact, am not entirely opposed to the bailout scheme in the present context - it may help a great deal to maintain interbank liquidity by creating a temporary government-sponsored market for the purchase of unsaleable bank assets (many but not all of which are of bad quality).
But the bailout will not resolve the fundamental economic weakness that is now upon us. Our present broad economic problems are a consequence of nothing less than financial exhaustion. Every conceivable means of creating, slicing, dicing, and repackaging debt has now been tried - and the most ludicrous of them have utterly failed, undermining in turn even the considered plans of the most financially cautious and responsible of our citizenry.
We are all impacted by the present financial epidemic. Despite the failures of multiple banks, the end of the government sponsored enterprises, and the end of investment banking on Wall Street, we still don't seem to have recognized this most fundamental fact....
That is, bigger upside - bigger downside. It is fairly symmetrical.
Consequences exist, and there is no simple way around them, other than simply paying the price of our prior irresponsible economic decisions.
At such historic junctures, citizens have always turned to gold to preserve wealth. This time will be no different.
We remain in the very earliest stages of placing an appropriate financial value upon the ability of gold to preserve value in a world that has fundamentally lost sight of what value actually is. Gold's price is as low as it is today (roughly equivalent to 1980s peak price level, disregarding 28 years of roaring inflation) because those who hold it have not yet fully considered its worth in their hands. When continued financial crisis makes that understanding more clear, the monetary amount we pay for gold is very likely to double from today's price in the $800 range.
The time frame for the present revaluation is likely to be quite brief in historical terms, though I lack the ability to predict when this price adjustment will occur. Obviously I believe that gold should be priced at $1600 today, and that is not yet the case. But do not doubt gold's power to accrete value to itself in times of crisis. It will come soon enough.
October 11, 2008: Note that the price of gold has moved $100 in a day twice in the past month (September 17 and October 10).
I take the recent volatility as evidence of the capability of gold to sustain price readjustments in increasingly larger steps. Gold has its enemies, and these powerful moves will not always be in favour of short-term oriented gold traders (as was certainly the case on October 10 - and will be again). But gold's increased recent volatility fundamentally equips the metal of kings to undertake the sort of powerful price revision that I am now suggesting. Note, however, that in my experience, gold rarely takes on value in other than unsettling ways to those who trust in its enduring power to preserve hard-won savings.
Gold is to some degree a wild beast that cannot be tamed by any single human interest group. Gold marches to its own drummer, and perseverance is required to reap the benefits of its undeniable strength relative to all other classes of investment. In fact, gold is in a category of its own. It cannot be likened to any other holding. Those who are unfamiliar with its unrestrained behaviour are as likely to be unsettled as as to be rewarded by owning it. So take this as a cautionary note! Riding the gold bull has never been easy, but it has inevitably been rewarding for those who have perceived correctly when its time to outshine all other investment options has come.
Inevitably, at some point over the next one to three years, gold will startlingly readjust our concept of what it is and of what it is able to do for those who choose to hold it. It is possible that no more than one more year will be required for this fundamental readjustment to occur.
This readjustment will constitute the first wave of the Golden Tsunami that I am quite certain is on its way even now...
Oh, and here's an interesting note. The 40-point percentage drop in the Dow over the past year is now the greatest on that index since 1900, including 1929-1930, the one-year period that kicked off the great depression. Note also how the present decline is at almost four times the magnitude of the 11% year 2000-2001 decline.
Of course, when you analyze the performance of the Dow in gold terms, the drop is greater still, reinforcing the failure of the Dow against gold that in fact began in the year 1999. Based on historic indicators, the Dow could still lose 80-90% of its value in gold terms from here. At Dow bottoms, the index is usually at or near parity with the gold price. The primary question from here is whether gold rises that much or the Dow falls that much. This in turn will depend primarily on the extent to which inflation erodes the real value of the Dow - and enhances the monetary value of gold. That is, the greater the amount of inflation, the higher the nominal value of the Dow, and the greater the monetary cost of gold.
Many commentators have warned that US and world markets were in unprecedented bubble territory since the early to mid-1990s. The one-year decline of 2007-2008 seems finally to have justified their warnings.
By the way, the only surprise for gold investors so far in the present market panic has been the extent to which the market has allowed the trading price of precious metal (and commodity) mining shares to fall. As the gold price has remained firm through the stock market correction, there can be little doubt that the earnings of the gold miners will be rising from year to year.
That is, the large miners will ultimately do fine, and their market value will certainly recover to better levels than before, but the same cannot be said for junior miners and explorers. There is now a crisis in the liquidity-dependent small capitalization gold mining and exploration sector.
Bottom line - mineral deposits are very expensive to find, and mines are expensive to permit, build and operate. Small mining and exploration companies depend upon the availability of capital through both the stock market and the banking and credit systems. Interestingly, if the various international inflationary rescue plans that are now being contemplated bear fruit, the smaller miners will benefit doubly: (1) Any fix to the banking system that works (click here for a Canadian perspective) will again at some point make funds available for mineral exploration and mine development; and (2) the global financial repair, however it ultimately works out, will inevitably be extraordinarily inflationary in nature, giving greater value to the products of the miners.
If the rescue plans fail, which is of course a very real possibility, then the current pall over the small cap mineral and mining sector will surely be extended. Inevitably, the bigger miners who can fund exploration and development costs through their increasingly profitable production operations will then be snapping up the best of the juniors, as buyouts by producers will become the only method of funding new mineral exploration and mining ventures.
When this time comes, there will be one critical distinction between the depressed small cap mining sector and the mainstream business sector.... The assets of the explorers and mine developers will be appreciating in real value, even as the assets of consumer-dependent businesses and financial entities continue to fall in real value until such time as Western consumers recover from the credit and debt binge of the past three decades.
Here is another way to think about it. In an environment of coordinated international currency devaluation, currencies will inevitably lose ground against tangible assets. This is a time-honoured economic principle and historical truth that has never once failed to demonstrate itself. When currencies decline in value, things that are real take on value relative to currencies.
I have even begun to think of it this way. Commodities have already become the currency of a planet with a population of 6 billion, 850 million souls (four billion of them Asians) who can easily live without the promises of banks and governments, but who cannot survive without things that are real. Tell me that as Asia rises its citizens will not require - or will fail to obtain as needed - iron, copper, nickel, zinc, lumber, agricultural produce or water. In our current inflationary environment, where governments are now frankly discussing trillions of dollars in rescue packages, the value of money is a fiction - whereas the value of things that are real cannot be questioned.
We also know that, unlike ourselves in the present age, Asians are savers. And while we in the West happily trade away our gold and silver, the savers of the East are snapping it up - in fact, more rapidly than we can hand it over to them, thus creating the recently reported shortages in the physical precious metal markets. Asians require iron and petroleum to live, but they will demand precious metals when they save. These are the fundamental facts in the background which are ever so visible, and yet simply not under discussion.
While we here in the West play with trillions of dollars in electronically created money, the savers of the East are taking a stake in the future through investment in precious metals and other tangible assets. This is the fundamental economic fact of our time.
Present global phenomena can thus be understood in the historical context of the rise of the East, which is a larger historical trend in the background of global economic developments. That is, Western economies are ultimately built on the backs of financially exhausted Western consumers. The distress has many years to continue. Alternatively, Asian economies have so far been built on the savings of thrifty citizens, who are only now entering the consumer marketplace at still quite a gradual pace. Many years of growth in Asia lie ahead, and Asia will become increasingly independent as this region of the globe moves towards domestic sources of revenue, and away from its present export-driven business models.
Now... if a sufficient body of investors can appreciate the subtle distinction between real and imaginary value, it is possible that the small cap mineral and mining sector might recover handily prior to its assimilation by large-scale miners. I for one would like to preserve the independence of the small miners and explorers, but I cannot realize this project alone. There will have to be a sufficient body of other investors who see it as I do.
Time will tell regarding the fate of the junior precious metal mining and exploration sector. My guess is that the timing of the golden tsunami will make it or break it one way or the other. That is, if the golden tsunami arrives sooner, say within the next year, small cap shares may recover quite quickly. Based on my thesis, their assets are literally enduring wealth stored in the ground. If the landfall of the tsunami is delayed by several more years, then the small cap sector will be bought up by the larger mining companies (who certainly understand the value of their assets), and we will see a massive consolidation of the mining sector.
It is ironic that in today's world, governments are spending trillions of dollars in anticipated taxpayer contributions to purchase financial assets that are worthless while at the same time, global investors are spurning the ownership of assets of enduring and appreciating value. But this is the world we live in... bizarre though it may be. There is no other.