Friday, March 13, 2015

Time to plan for the rapidly waning US-dollar hegemony.....

In another awkward blow to the rapidly waning US-dollar hegemony, the government of the United Kingdom announced that they would be applying to join the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as a founding member. Right now, the United States dominates the global financial system. But after years of endless wars, spying, debt, money printing, bailouts, and insane regulations, the rest of the world has had enough. And they’re looking for an alternative. China is coming up with an answer. The soon-to-be-live Chinese International Payment System (CIPS) will provide a way for banks to transfer funds to one another without having to use the US banking system or the US dollar. China is also the ringleader behind both the BRICS development bank (called the New Development Bank, or NDB) as well as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
Both of these are multilateral development banks that aim to end the dominance of the western-controlled World Bank and IMF. NDB includes all the BRICS nations– Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Founding members of the AIIB include China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, etc. They’re typically all rapidly growing and/or resource-rich developing nations. New Zealand was the first western nation to join AIIB back in October. And yesterday afternoon, Britain announced its intention to become the second. (Of course in the UK’s eyes they’re the first since New Zealand still belongs to the Queen!). This is a massive, embarrassing blow to the United States, and to the future of the US dollar. It’s pretty obvious when you look at the dozens of signatories to the NDB and AIIB charter documents: the rest of the world is sick and tired of the United States dominating the global financial system. And by putting these new development banks and alternative payment systems together, they’re actually doing something about it.
Even America’s own allies have supported this anti-dollar movement. Last summer the French Finance Minister slammed the US government for arrogantly fining French bank BNP a whopping $9 billion for doing business with countries that the US doesn’t like. (One of the ‘evil’ countries BNP did business with was Cuba, and they were heavily punished for this, even though BNP broke no law in France. But now all of a sudden the US and Cuba are buddy-buddy again. Is BNP going to get a refund?) His conclusion? It’s time for a ‘rebalancing’ of the global financial system away from the US dollar. Other political allies of the United States have echoed similar sentiment. But now we can see words are turning into action.
Britain might be too polite to tell the US straight up– “Look, you have $18.1 trillion in official debt, you have $42 trillion in unfunded liabilities, and you’re kind of a dick. I’m dumping you.” So instead they’re going with the “it’s not you, it’s me” approach.
But to anyone paying attention, it’s pretty obvious where this trend is going. It won’t be long before other western nations jump on the anti-dollar bandwagon with action and not just words. Bottom line: this isn’t theory or conjecture anymore. Every shred of objective evidence suggests that the dollar’s dominance is coming to an end. It’s happening. Time to plan for it...

 :)

Monday, November 17, 2014

زمن الشيطان، فمتى يُسْحَقُ الرأسُين....؟

زمن الشيطان، فمتى يُسْحَقُ الرأسُين....؟


 
 
في علامات الازمنة، نقرأ انقلاباً على الله، وعَرْبَدةً جماعية مستدامة، إنه زمنُ الشيطانِ بامتياز!
فما الذي يحصل؟ ولماذا ضاع السلامُ على الارض، وهجرتِ المسرَّةُ الناسَ؟

ما من عقلٍ سوي، يمكنه أن يفهم ما يحدث اليوم، في كثير من بقاع الارض، حفل جنون جماعي؛ فلا ضوابط ترسم الحدود بين الحق والباطل، ولا سلطة تحفظ الحقوق، وتصون الكرامات، أما الشعوب فمصابة بفقدان الذاكرة، أو أنها ارتوت من النبع المسحور، فأصيبت بعمى البصر و البصيرة.

آمَنَّا أنَّ الانسان هو على صورة الله ومثاله!فأيُّ انسانٍ هو هذا، الذي يفوق بسلوكه، كل عصور التوحش؟فهل نصدِّق، أنَّ ما يَجري اليوم، فوق أرض لبنان، والعراق، وسوريا، وليبيا، ومصر، وغيرها، صانِعُه ومنفِّذه، انسانٌ يحملُ صورة الله؟!

لا تَكْفِرُوا، ولا تَضَلوا، ولا تُخطِئوا، فهؤلاء، كائنات لا تشبهُ البشر! ما يحصل، انقلابٌ على الله، أوانتفاضةٌ تشبه تلك التي قادها "يوسيفورس"، الذي سقط بغروره، وكبريائه، من أعلى المراتب الملائكية، الى دونيَّة الابْلَسَةِ في رئاسة الجحيم؛ انه صراعٌ بين الخير المطلق، والشر المطلق. فهل يسقط الانسان، كما سقط من قَبْلُ؟

ما نشهده اليوم، عَصْفٌ جارفٌ لما بنته الانسانية، عبر تاريخها من حضارات، وابداعات، وفكر، وثقافة، وقيم. هؤلاء يتَّخِذون من "تيولوجيا" الدين مطيَّةً، لأحفاد إبليس وزبانيته!
تطلبون أدلةً، وهي كثيرة؛ فنحن مع الذين هالهم هذا السقوط العظيم، نستعيد بعضاً من مسلسلات العنف، والرعب، والاجرام، والتوحش، والفساد، والانحراف، التي أصبحت–مع الاسف الشديد- ثقافة، يُسوِّقُ لها، ويُفاخر بها تكفيريو هذا الزمن التعيس، ويعملون على تعميمها، بحد السيف، وسفك الدماء، وانتزاع القلوب.

هؤلاء، يتظللون راية الله، ويحتكرون التحدث باسمه، نسألهم باسم من تذبحون، وقد قال تعالى في وصيته الرابعة، لا تقتل، وباسم من تغتصبون النساء، وغيرهم من البشر وغير البشر، يا مجاهدي النكاح، وهو الذي نهاكم عن الزنى، وحتى عن اشتهاء امرأة القريب، ومقتناه، فأي دين يحضُّكم على سبي النساء، وبيعهن في ألاسواق كما تباع المواشي؟

أي دين يبرر لكم خطف الاطفال والرضَّع، وسوقهم الى متعتكم، أو الى تذهينهم على الذبح وسفك الدماء، فمن تعبدون أنتم، وقد نهاكم، عن (القتل، والزنى، والسرقة، و حتى عن اشتهاء امرأة القريب. . . )؛ فماذا تفعلون أنتم؟

 نسألكم، كيف تفجِّرون المدارس، والجامعات، ودورالعبادة والمستشفيات، وتقطعون الاعناق والارزاق، وأنتم تكبِّرون وتهلِّلون؟

قد يسأل بعضُكم، عن هويَّةِ هذا المسخ، الذي يعيث في الارض فساداً ورعباً، ويقضُّ مضاجعَ الابرياء المسالمين. ولمن يجهل نقول، يكفيكم مراقبة حركة السلاح والتسلح، مصدرها، حجمها، أنواعها، اضافة الى تدفُّق آلاف الارهابيين من كل أصقاع العالم، عبر مسالك آمنة، محميَّة من دول اقليمية ودولية، معروفة بالصوت والصورة، راقبوا كذلك، حركة تدفق الاموال العربية-الخليجية، والاقليمية-الدولية، عثمانية، أميركية، وأوروبية وغيرها، وهي جميعها، من أموال الشعوب الجائعة والمشردة، والمنبوذة، حتى يتكشَّفَ لكم، ودون الحاجة الى فحص الحمض النووي، نَسَبَ هذا المسخ، الذي ينتظر عودة (الخُضْرِ)، ليَسْحَقَ رأسه، وترتاحَ حسناوات هذا الزمان!

مئات المليارات من الدولارات، إستُثمرت من أجل تدمير المجتمعات العربية؛ فلو يقرأ العرب ! لوجدوا أنَّ حكوماتهم تدفع أكثر من مئة مليار دولار سنوياً، بدل السلاح الاميركي، وتحديداً من دول الخليج، التي تُؤمِّن السيولة نقداً، وكلَّ حاجاتِ الارهابيين، ومستلزماتهم اللوجستية، بكرم عربي غير مسبوق.

جاء في صحيفة العرب، التي تأسست في لندن عام 1977، بتاريخ 19/11 /2013، ما حرفيته:" ان شركات السلاح الاميركية بدأت تنظر الى الشرق الاوسط كملاذٍ يمكن أن ينقذها من الانكماش وربما الافلاس".

لمن لم يقتنع بعد، نُحيله الى ما صدر في دوائر الامم المتحدة، والذي تناقلته معظم وسائل الاعلام ذات المصداقية، وفيه تأكيد على أن الكثير من التحويلات المالية، المرسلة اليوم الى "داعش"، والمنظمات الارهابية الاخرى، تمر عبر المصارف الاوروبية!

من أفواههم ندينهم، ونؤكِّد أنَّ تحالفهم الدولي لمقاتلة الارهاب، هو خدعة العصر بامتياز. يقاتلون الارهاب بيد، ويمدونه بكل أشكال الدعم، باليد الاخرى، يقصفونه في بعض مواقع الميدان، ثم يوفرون كل ما يحتاجه، بأمرهم وبأموالهم.

هكذا نفهم لماذا، تجْهَدُ أميركا باستمرار، لتصعيد الخلاف وتأجيجه في الشرق، لاسيما بين ايران، والبلدان العربية التي تملك الثروات الطائلة؛ فهي بحاجة ماسة الى عدو اسطوري دائم، يبرر لها نهب ثروات العرب، و"شفط أموالهم "، حتى تجف المنابع.

هؤلاء هم الذين صنعوا هذا الوحش الداعشي وغيره، وعندما كَبُر وخرج عن السيطرة، عملوا على لجمه، واذا اقتضى الامر دمَّروه، واستبدلوه بوحش أكثر ترويضاً، وهكذا بدأت أميركا، والدول الاوروبية التي تدور في فلكها، انشاء مخيمات حاضنة، للوحش الجديد، في أمبراطورية بني عثمان، وبتنسيق كامل مع عملائهم العرب، وبالدعم المفتوح!


العلَّة اذاً تكمن، في رأس الافعى، لا في ذنبها، وما لم يُسْحَق الرأسُ  إسرائيل وأميركا  ، سيبقى الخطرُ قائماً، وستبقى شعوب العرب تبكي حاضرَها ومستقبَلها، كما بَكَتْ دائماً تاريخَها
 
 
 

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Russian tanks might roll into Warsaw, Athens, Rome or Lisbon at any time... LOL :)






You probably heard it by now: Obama has pledged a billion dollars to what my "beloved" BBC called "European security". The official name for this initiative is the "European Reassurance Initiative".  You see, Obama and the BBC apparently believe that Europeans are really terrified and that they believe that the Russian tanks might roll into Warsaw, Athens, Rome or Lisbon at any time.  The good news is that Uncle Sam is here to reassure them that he will let no such thing happen and that this additional 1 billion dollars will deter the Russian Bear…   J 

Have you ever read something more ridiculous?


So what is really going on here?


There is a wonderful American expression which says that "to a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail".  Well, to Obama, the EU and the Ukraine sure do look like nails because the only instrument the USA has used in its foreign policy for many decades now is a "hammer" composed of money and guns.  But let's backtrack for a second.


I submit that the US policy in Europe is nothing short of a total failure.  Not only has the US-instigated coup in the Ukraine turned into a full-spectrum disaster, but the latest elections in Europe clearly show that the European public is becoming more anti-EU and more anti-US.  In fact, since the EU is nothing more than a US instrument of colonial domination over Europe, being anti-EU is being anti-US.  Bernard-Henri Levi, the hyper-Zionist clown who fancies himself a "philosopher" and who is the darling of the European elites, once said that "anti-Americanism is a metaphor for anti-Semitism".  To paraphrase him I would say that "anti-Europeanism is a metaphor for anti-Americanism" (at least if by "Europe" we understand that trans-national horror known as the EU and not the "Europe of the fatherlands" which de Gaulle, a true patriot of France and Europe, had called for).  And the folks in DC understand that too, they are not stupid.  Worse of all for them, time is running out and the situation on the ground is getting worse and worse not by the day, but by the hour.  France, in particular, might explode literally any day.


But the real problem is not in Europe or in the Ukraine, it is in the USA.  The US leadership, clearly intoxicated on imperial hubris and 1% class arrogance, has simply forgotten Bismark's motto that "politics is the art of the possible" and this is why instead of seeking some kind of best possible compromise leading to the best possible outcome, they are holding on with a desperate death-grip to an impossible outcome: a Europe run by the EU and a unitary state of Banderastan on the border with Russia.  That ain't gonna happen, of course.  In fact, the harder the US pushes for such an outcome, the less likely it is to ever become reality.  No need to read Hegel to understand that - a quick look at the recent events in Europe clearly shows that the AngloZionist imperial design for the ATTU (Atlantic to the Ural) zone is going nowhere and will end up in an embarrassing meltdown.


Faced with this prospect, the White House does what the French call "fuite en avant" ("fleeing forward" if you want, or "advancing even faster into the quicksands").  The Russians did not take the Ukrainian bait?  Fine - we will pretend like they did anyway and "reassure" the Europeans by
declaring that "the security of America's European allies is sacrosanct" with enough gravitas to hopefully make them believe that they are really threatened. The neo-Nazi junta has just engaged in yet another massacre in the east? No problem, we will simply praise the regime for its restraint and "democratic nature".  The EU leaders are having a panic attack over the latest elections?  No problem either, we will just give them a one billion dollar bribe to show them that we will stand by them no matter what and regardless of whom those pesky Europeans might vote for the next time around.

Because, of course, this is what this billion dollar is all about.  It's just bribe money for the 1% in the US and the EU to be distributed amongst these plutocrats under the guise of "reassuring Europe".  In reality, the "European Reassurance Initiative" only serves to reassure the European elites and the Eurobureaucrats as they are the only ones who will truly benefit from it.  And where shall the money come from?  Well, hell, Uncle Sam can just create it out of thin air with a few keystrokes on the right computer…  And as long as the EU and the rest of the US-colonized planet continues to accept payments in dollars, they will be the ones really paying for this "EU plutocracy reassurance initiative"…


You might retort that this is a stupid strategy which will only make things worse.  And you would be right.  But not in the very short term, which is really the only term which has ever mattered to capitalists anyway.  Besides, money and guns are the only two "policy instruments" the US elites understand, so why not throw some money at the issue and hope that guns will make the Empire look stronger?


It is as pathetic as it is immoral. The good news is that the AngloZionist Empire is really sabotaging itself and that it does so faster and better than any outside power could ever dream of.  And we are far from having seen the worst of it (just think of what a Hillary Presidency would look like!)…


As for the people of Novorossia and Russia - they should keep their cool and realize that all this hot air blowing from the West is just that - hot air.  Yes, sometimes they *sound* scary, but that only because American politicians are the masters of make believe and that they are running what Chris Hedges so brilliantly called the "
Empire of Illusions".  No matter what they say, the reality on the ground, in the real world, is that Kiev does not have any military option in the Donbass just like the AngloZionist Empire has no military option against Russia.  Yes, they can *pretend* like they have, but that does not make it so…

What we all should keep in mind is that neither money nor guns win wars.  Yes, they are important factors, but they cannot decide an outcome.  Willpower does.  The Americans, by the way, are quite aware of that.  The dumb ones really believe their own propaganda, but the smart ones know that the real purpose of the US "make believe propaganda" is not to really make it happen, but to demoralize the opponent and break down his will to resist.  The danger of that is that the moment your opponent really understands that he will immediately understand something else too: that your bark is far bigger than your bite.  This is what has happened with Hezbollah…


For years the AngloZionist propaganda has presented the IDF as some kind of elite, almost invincible, force (which they never were, as anybody who has trained with them knows)…  And that myth of Israeli invincibility has literally paralyzed the entire Middle-East until Hezbollah challenged it.  As in 2006 "while in the past the Lebanese would jump into their cars and drive north as soon as an Israeli attack was announced, now they would jump in their cars and drive south".  That "switch" in the mind of the Lebanese is what really defeated the IDF in 2006, not some kind of Hezbollah super-weapon…


What does this mean for Novorossia?


It means that the people of Novorossia must truly believe in themselves and stop hoping for a Russian intervention which is not going to happen, at least at this moment in time.  Let Obama shake his billion dollar hammer until he drops in exhaustion, but never let that distract you from a victory which is very much within your reach.  Yes, the massacres in Qana1&Qana2&Qana3, in Odessa, Mariupol, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Donetsk and now Lugansk are disgusting atrocities which cannot be forgiven or forgotten, but they are not on the same scale as the horrors of WWII and yet the Russian people eventually also won that war…and so did we in Lebanon!!!


Lies and terror have the exact same purpose: to defeat the will of their target and we can expect a lot more lies and terror from the neo-Nazis in Kiev and from the AngloZionist Empire.  But if we take heed of Hezbollah's example in Lebanon and if we keep in mind that time is very much on our side, we will prevail, sooner rather than later…

HK



Thursday, May 29, 2014

China pivot fuels Eurasian century… Exit the Petrodollar, enter the Gas-o-Yuan…




China pivot fuels Eurasian century… Exit the Petrodollar, enter the Gas-o-Yuan…A specter is haunting Washington, an unnerving vision of a Sino-Russian alliance wedded to an expansive symbiosis of trade and commerce across much of the Eurasian land mass - at the expense of the United States.
And no wonder Washington is anxious. That alliance is already a done deal in a variety of ways: through the BRICS group of emerging powers (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa); at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Asian counterweight to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; inside the Group of 20; and via the 120-member-nation Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).
Trade and commerce are just part of the future bargain. Synergies
http://asianmedia.com/GAAN/www/delivery/lg.php?bannerid=1945&campaignid=23&zoneid=36&loc=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atimes.com%2Fatimes%2FChina%2FCHIN-01-190514.html&cb=80976d31bein the development of new military technologies beckon as well. After Russia's Star Wars-style, ultra-sophisticated S-500 air defense anti-missile system comes online in 2018, Beijing is sure to want a version of it. Meanwhile, Russia is about to sell dozens of state-of-the-art Sukhoi Su-35 jet fighters to the Chinese as Beijing and Moscow move to seal an aviation-industrial partnership.
This week should provide the first real fireworks in the celebration of a new Eurasian century-in-the-making when Russian President Vladimir Putin drops in on Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
You remember "Pipelineistan," all those crucial oil and gas pipelines crisscrossing Eurasia that make up the true circulatory system for the life of the region. Now, it looks like the ultimate Pipelineistan deal, worth US$1 trillion and 10 years in the making, will be signed off on as well. In it, the giant, state-controlled Russian energy giant Gazprom will agree to supply the giant state-controlled China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) with 3.75 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas a day for no less than 30 years, starting in 2018. That's the equivalent of a quarter of Russia's gas exports to all of Europe. China's present daily gas demand is around 16 billion cubic feet a day, and imports account for 31.6% of total consumption.
Gazprom may still collect the bulk of its profits from Europe, but Asia could turn out to be its Everest. The company will use this mega-deal to boost investment in Eastern Siberia and the whole region will be reconfigured as a privileged gas hub for Japan and South Korea as well. If you want to know why no key country in Asia has been willing to "isolate" Russia in the midst of the Ukrainian crisis - and in defiance of the Obama administration - look no further than Pipelineistan….

Exit the Petrodollar, enter the Gas-o-Yuan…
And then, talking about anxiety in Washington, there's the fate of the petrodollar to consider, or rather the "thermonuclear" possibility that Moscow and Beijing will agree on payment for the Gazprom-CNPC deal not in petrodollars but in Chinese yuan.

One can hardly imagine a more tectonic shift, with Pipelineistan intersecting with a growing Sino-Russian political-economic-energy partnership. Along with it goes the future possibility of a push, led again by China and Russia, toward a new international reserve currency - actually a basket of currencies - that would supersede the dollar (at least in the optimistic dreams of BRICS members).

Right after the potentially game-changing Sino-Russian summit comes a BRICS summit in Brazil in July. That's when a $100 billion BRICS development bank, announced in 2012, will officially be born as a potential alternative to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as a source of project financing for the developing world.

More BRICS cooperation meant to bypass the dollar is reflected in the "Gas-o-yuan", as in natural gas bought and paid for in Chinese currency. Gazprom is even considering marketing bonds in yuan as part of the financial planning for its expansion. Yuan-backed bonds are already trading in Hong Kong, Singapore, London, and most recently Frankfurt.

Nothing could be more sensible for the new Pipelineistan deal than to have it settled in yuan. Beijing would pay Gazprom in that currency (convertible into roubles); Gazprom would accumulate the yuan; Russia would then buy myriad made-in-China goods and services in yuan convertible into roubles.

It's common knowledge that banks in Hong Kong, from Standard Chartered to HSBC - as well as others closely linked to China via trade deals - have been diversifying into the yuan, which implies that it could become one of the de facto global reserve currencies even before it's fully convertible. (Beijing is unofficially working for a fully convertible yuan by 2018.)

The Russia-China gas deal is inextricably tied up with the energy relationship between the European Union and Russia. After all, the bulk of Russia's gross domestic product comes from oil and gas sales, as does much of its leverage in the Ukraine crisis. In turn, Germany depends on Russia for a hefty 30% of its natural gas supplies. Yet Washington's geopolitical imperatives - spiced up with Polish hysteria - have meant pushing Brussels to find ways to "punish" Moscow in the future energy sphere (while not imperiling present day energy relationships).

There's a consistent rumble in Brussels these days about the possible cancellation of the projected 16 billion euro (US$22 billion) South Stream pipeline, whose construction is to start in June. On completion, it would pump yet more Russian natural gas to Europe - in this case, underneath the Black Sea (bypassing Ukraine) to Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia, Serbia, Croatia, Greece, Italy, and Austria.

Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have already made it clear that they are firmly opposed to any cancellation, and cancellation is probably not in the cards. After all, the only obvious alternative is Caspian Sea gas from Azerbaijan, and that isn't likely to happen unless the EU develops its own construction projects.

In any case, Azerbaijan doesn't have enough capacity to supply the levels of natural gas needed, and other actors like Kazakhstan, plagued with infrastructure problems, or unreliable Turkmenistan, which prefers to sell its gas to China, are already largely out of the picture. And don't forget that South Stream, coupled with subsidiary energy projects, will create a lot of jobs and investment in many of the most economically devastated EU nations.

Nonetheless, such EU threats, however unrealistic, only serve to accelerate Russia's increasing symbiosis with Asian markets. For Beijing especially, it's a win-win situation. After all, between energy supplied across seas policed and controlled by the US Navy and steady, stable land routes out of Siberia, it's no contest.

Pick your own Silk Road
Of course, the US dollar remains the top global reserve currency, involving 33% of global foreign exchange holdings at the end of 2013, according to the IMF. It was, however, at 55% in 2000. Nobody knows the percentage in yuan (and Beijing isn't talking), but the IMF notes that reserves in "other currencies" in emerging markets have been up 400% since 2003.

The Federal Reserve is arguably monetizing 70% of the US government debt in an attempt to keep interest rates from heading skywards. Pentagon adviser Jim Rickards, as well as every Hong Kong-based banker, tends to believe that the Fed is bust (though they won't say it on the record). No one can even imagine the extent of the possible future deluge the US dollar might experience amid a $1.4 quadrillion Mount Ararat of financial derivatives.

Don't think that this is the death knell of Western capitalism, however, just the faltering of that reigning economic faith, neoliberalism, still the official ideology of the United States, the overwhelming majority of the European Union, and parts of Asia and South America.

As far as what might be called the "authoritarian neoliberalism" of the Middle Kingdom, what's not to like at the moment? China has proven that there is a result-oriented alternative to the Western "democratic" capitalist model for nations aiming to be successful. It's building not one, but myriad new Silk Roads, far-reaching webs of high-speed railways, highways, pipelines, ports, and fiber-optic networks across huge parts of Eurasia. These include a Southeast Asian road, a Central Asian road, an Indian Ocean "maritime highway" and even a high-speed rail line through Iran and Turkey reaching all the way to Germany.

In April, when President Xi Jinping visited the city of Duisburg on the Rhine River, with the world's largest inland harbor and right in the heartland of Germany's Ruhr steel industry, he made an audacious proposal: a new "economic Silk Road" should be built between China and Europe, on the basis of the Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe railway, which already runs from China to Kazakhstan, to continue through Russia, Belarus, Poland, and finally Germany. That's 15 days by train, 20 less than for cargo ships sailing from China's eastern seaboard. Now that would represent the ultimate geopolitical earthquake in terms of integrating economic growth across Eurasia.

Keep in mind that, if no bubbles burst, China is about to become - and remain - the number one global economic power, a position it enjoyed for 18 of the past 20 centuries. But don't tell London hagiographers; they still believe that US hegemony will last, well, forever….
Take me to Cold War 2.0
Despite recent serious financial struggles, the BRICS countries have been consciously working to become a counterforce to the original and - having tossed Russia out in March - once again Group of 7, or G-7. They are eager to create a global architecture to replace the one first imposed in the wake of World War II, and they see themselves as a potential challenge to the exceptionalist and unipolar world that Washington imagines for our future (with itself as the global robocop and NATO as its robo-police force). Historian and imperialist cheerleader Ian Morris, in his book War! What is it Good For?, defines the US as the ultimate "globocop" and "the last best hope of Earth". If that globocop "wearies of its
http://asianmedia.com/GAAN/www/delivery/lg.php?bannerid=1945&campaignid=23&zoneid=36&loc=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atimes.com%2Fatimes%2FChina%2FCHIN-02-190514.html&cb=5e821ab60erole", he writes, "there is no plan B".

Well, there is a plan BRICS - or so the BRICS nations would like to think, at least. And when the BRICS do act in this spirit on the global stage, they quickly conjure up a curious mix of fear, hysteria, and pugnaciousness in the Washington establishment.

Take Christopher Hill as an example. The former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and US ambassador to Iraq is now an advisor with the Albright Stonebridge Group, a consulting firm deeply connected to the White House and the State Department. When Russia was down and out, Hill used to dream of a hegemonic American "new world order". Now that the ungrateful Russians have spurned what "the West has been offering" - that is, "special status with NATO, a privileged relationship with the European Union, and partnership in international diplomatic endeavors" - they are, in his view, busy trying to revive the Soviet empire. Translation: if you're not our vassals, you're against us. Welcome to Cold War 2.0.

The Pentagon has its own version of this directed not so much at Russia as at China, which, its think tank on future warfare claims, is already at war with Washington in a number of ways. So if it's not apocalypse now, it's Armageddon tomorrow. And it goes without saying that whatever's going wrong, as the Obama administration very publicly "pivots" to Asia and the American media fills with talk about a revival of Cold War-era "containment policy" in the Pacific, it's all China's fault.

Embedded in the mad dash toward Cold War 2.0 are some ludicrous facts-on-the-ground: the US government, with $17.5 trillion in national debt and counting, is contemplating a financial showdown with Russia, the largest global energy producer and a major nuclear power, just as it's also promoting an economically unsustainable military encirclement of its largest creditor, China.

Russia runs a sizeable trade surplus. Humongous Chinese banks will have no trouble helping Russian banks out if Western funds dry up. In terms of inter-BRICS cooperation, few projects beat a $30 billion oil pipeline in the planning stages that will stretch from Russia to India via Northwest China.

Chinese companies are already eagerly discussing the possibility of taking part in the creation of a transport corridor from Russia into Crimea, as well as an airport, shipyard, and liquid natural gas terminal there. And there's another "thermonuclear" gambit in the making: the birth of a natural gas equivalent to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that would include Russia, Iran, and reportedly disgruntled US ally Qatar.

The (unstated) BRICS long-term plan involves the creation of an alternative economic system featuring a basket of gold-backed currencies that would bypass the present America-centric global financial system. (No wonder Russia and China are amassing as much gold as they can.) The euro - a sound currency backed by large liquid bond markets and huge gold reserves - would be welcomed in as well.

It's no secret in Hong Kong that the Bank of China has been using a parallel SWIFT network to conduct every kind of trade with Tehran, which is under a heavy US sanctions regime. With Washington wielding Visa and MasterCard as weapons in a growing Cold War-style economic campaign against Russia, Moscow is about to implement an alternative payment and credit card system not controlled by Western finance. An even easier route would be to adopt the Chinese Union Pay system, whose operations have already overtaken American Express in global volume.

I'm just pivoting with myself
No amount of Obama administration "pivoting" to Asia to contain China (and threaten it with US Navy control of the energy sea lanes to that country) is likely to push Beijing far from its Deng Xiaoping-inspired, self-described "peaceful development" strategy meant to turn it into a global powerhouse of trade.

Nor are the forward deployment of US or NATO troops in Eastern Europe or other such Cold-War-ish acts likely to deter Moscow from a careful balancing act: ensuring that Russia's sphere of influence in Ukraine remains strong without compromising trade and commercial, as well as political, ties with the European Union - above all, with strategic partner Germany. This is Moscow's Holy Grail; a free-trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok, which (not by accident) is mirrored in China's dream of a new Silk Road to Germany.

Increasingly wary of Washington, Berlin for its part abhors the notion of Europe being caught in the grips of a Cold War 2.0. German leaders have more important fish to fry, including trying to stabilize a wobbly EU while warding off an economic collapse in southern and central Europe and the advance of ever more extreme rightwing parties.

On the other side of the Atlantic, President Obama and his top officials show every sign of becoming entangled in their own pivoting - to Iran, to China, to Russia's eastern borderlands, and (under the radar) to Africa. The irony of all these military-first maneuvers is that they are actually helping Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing build up their own strategic depth in Eurasia and elsewhere, as reflected in Syria, or crucially in ever more energy deals. They are also helping cement the growing strategic partnership between China and Iran. The unrelenting Ministry of Truth narrative out of Washington about all these developments now carefully ignores the fact that, without Moscow, the "West" would never have sat down to discuss a final nuclear deal with Iran or gotten a chemical disarmament agreement out of Damascus.

When the disputes between China and its neighbors in the South China Sea and between that country and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyou islands meet the Ukraine crisis, the inevitable conclusion will be that both Russia and China consider their borderlands and sea lanes private property and aren't going to take challenges quietly - be it via NATO expansion, US military encirclement, or missile shields. Neither Beijing nor Moscow is bent on the usual form of imperialist expansion, despite the version of events now being fed to Western publics. Their "red lines" remain essentially defensive in nature, no matter the bluster sometimes involved in securing them.

Whatever Washington may want or fear or try to prevent, the facts on the ground suggest that, in the years ahead, Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran will only grow closer, slowly but surely creating a new geopolitical axis in Eurasia. Meanwhile, a discombobulated America seems to be aiding and abetting the deconstruction of its own unipolar world order, while offering the BRICS a genuine window of opportunity to try to change the rules of the game.

Russia and China in pivot mode
In Washington's think-tank land, the conviction that the Obama administration should be focused on replaying the Cold War via a new version of containment policy to "limit the development of Russia as a hegemonic power" has taken hold. The recipe: weaponize the neighbors from the Baltic states to Azerbaijan to "contain" Russia. Cold War 2.0 is on because, from the point of view of Washington's elites, the first one never really left town.

Yet as much as the US may fight the emergence of a multipolar, multi-powered world, economic facts on the ground regularly point to such developments. The question remains: will the decline of the hegemon be slow and reasonably dignified, or will the whole world be dragged down with it in what has been called "the Samson option"?

While we watch the spectacle unfold, with no end-game in sight, keep in mind that a new force is growing in Eurasia, with the Sino-Russian strategic alliance threatening to dominate its heartland along with great stretches of its inner rim. Now, that's a nightmare of Mackinderesque proportions from Washington's point of view. Think, for instance, of how Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national security adviser who became a mentor on global politics to President Obama, would see it.

In his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard, Brzezinski argued that "the struggle for global primacy [would] continue to be played" on the Eurasian "chessboard", of which "Ukraine was a geopolitical pivot". "If Moscow regains control over Ukraine," he wrote at the time, Russia would "automatically regain the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia."

That remains most of the rationale behind the American imperial containment policy - from Russia's European "near abroad" to the South China Sea. Still, with no end-game in sight, keep your eye on Russia pivoting to Asia, China pivoting across the world, and the BRICS hard at work trying to bring about the new Eurasian Century.

Pepe.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

The Militarizing Of The Arctic...




The Arctic melt is uncovering more than just resources and trade routes – it is also opening up a whole new theatre of military operations.

Of all the world’s territorial disputes, the ones in the Arctic – and there are plenty – used to matter the least: the only prize at stake was frozen ocean, and most of the time it was too cold for military forces to operate there anyway. National boundaries were left to blur among the floes.

Suddenly those vague Arctic territories matter. The region is increasingly ice-free and the open ocean means rich fishing, undersea mineral and energy resources and new sea lanes. The Arctic, in other words, has become a valuable commodity.

Best placed to assert ownership are the “Arctic Five”, littoral Arctic Ocean states with well-established territorial claims and regional bases. “Russia and Norway are the two states most active and deliberate in raising their capacity for operating in the Arctic,” says Ernie Regehr, senior fellow in Arctic security at the Simons Foundation – a Canadian think-tank. Canada, Regehr says, made some “dramatic announcements regarding enhanced military capacity in the north”, but these have since run up against financial realities, while the US has been too preoccupied elsewhere to devote much energy to revamping its Arctic presence.

Russia is arguably doing the most: its North Sea Fleet is being restocked and is due to receive a new Mistral-class amphibious assault ship from France; six new $1.1bn (€816m) icebreakers, which, at 170 metres in length, will be the world’s biggest; and later new aircraft carriers. The Norwegians, meanwhile, have procured a new fleet of five Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates, which, together with its six Ula-class submarines, have significantly boosted its naval clout.

Yet it would be misleading to suggest that an Arctic arms race is underway. Bases are being upgraded, ice-breaking fleets expanded and modernised, and Arctic battalions retrained and uparmed. But the sheer remoteness of the Arctic makes conflict almost unthinkable, says Regehr.

“Military preparedness in the Arctic is really only meaningful if it enhances a capacity to contribute effectively to search and rescue, emergency response and support for public safety,” he says, citing a “universal insistence” among the Arctic Five that any competition will remain amicable.

New interest in the Arctic threatens to make it a crowded place, however.The Arctic Council – which already includes Finland, Iceland and Sweden in addition to the Five – voted in May to admit several new observer members, including China, India and Japan. Of these, China has taken the keenest interest: in 2012 its sole icebreaker, Xuelong, completed the first transarctic voyage by a Chinese vessel and a new $200m (€150m) icebreaker is due for delivery in 2014, with additional ships planned, as Beijing seeks to open up the High North as a conduit for Chinese trade.

Regehr is optimistic that these new players can be peacefully accommodated. “The risks are not China or India specifically,” he says. The concern is that more and more ships will be operating in waters which will remain dangerous even as they become navigable. “Human and commercial activity are in a sharply ascending arch; so too are the risks.” — (M)

Five Arctic Flaspoints: Territorial Disputes

1) The Barents Sea: Cold War rivals Norway and Russia
 settled their decades-old Barents Sea
border dispute in 2010. However, the subsequent discovery of huge oil and
gas deposits on Norway’s side of the 
line has left some Russians questioning
whether they’re getting their full share.
2) The Bering Strait: China plans to start using the Arctic as
a key trade route to cut long-distance
 transit times. But ships must access the
region via the Bering Strait – a narrow
chokepoint between Russia and Alaska. A blockade of this chokepoint would be an obvious play should conflict arise between China and another power.
3) Greenland: The retreat of the icecap covering Greenland – an autonomous territory that is part of Denmark – is attracting foreign firms keen to exploit the island’s resources. But commercial pressures are making it a contentious place to operate, while over-exploitation of its fragile environment could stir up trouble between local Inuit people, foreign business and the Danish government.
4) The North Pole: Ever since a Russian submarine planted a national flag on the seabed at the Pole in 2007, ownership of the High North has been a contentious issue. The Pole itself matters much less than the vast hydrocarbon resources thought to lie beneath it. Canada, Denmark, Russia and the US all have overlapping claims based on their conflicting interpretations of the maritime borders.
5) The Northwest Passage: Melting sea ice has opened up the fabled Northwest Passage, which runs along northern Canada and links the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. But while Canada claims sovereignty over the route, citing its proximity to the Canadian coast, other Arctic claimants – plus China – say the Passage is in international waters. As more ships ply the route, Canada must choose whether to enforce its claim or bow to pressure...


Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Arctic: Where the U.S. and Russia Could Square Off Next…








In mid-March, around the same time that Russia annexed Crimea, Russian officials announced another territorial coup: 52,000 square kilometers in the Sea of Okhotsk, a splotch of Pacific Ocean known as the "Peanut Hole" and believed to be rich in oil and gas. A UN commission had recognized the maritime territory as part of Russia's continental shelf, Russia's minister of natural resources and environment proudly announced, and the decision would only advance the territorial claims in the Arctic that Russia had pending before the same committee.After a decade and a half of painstaking petitioning, the Peanut Hole was Russia's…Russian officials were getting a bit ahead of themselves. Technically, the UN commission had approved Russia's recommendations on the outer limits of its continental shelf—and only when Russia acts on these suggestions is its control of the Sea of Okhotsk "final and binding." Still, these technicalities shouldn't obscure the larger point: Russia isn't only pursuing its territorial ambitions in Ukraine and other former Soviet states. It's particularly active in the Arctic Circle, and, until recently, these efforts engendered international cooperation, not conflict.But the Crimean crisis has complicated matters.
Take Hillary Clinton's call last week for Canada and the United States to form a "united front" in response to Russia "aggressively reopening military bases” in the Arctic. Or the difficulties U.S. officials are having in designing sanctions against Russia that won't harm Western oil companies like Exxon Mobil, which are engaged in oil-and-gas exploration with their Russian counterparts in parts of the Russian Arctic.In a dispatch from "beneath the Arctic ocean" this week, The Wall Street Journal reported on a U.S. navy exercise, scheduled before the crisis in Ukraine, that included a simulated attack on a Russian submarine. The U.S. has now canceled a joint naval exercise with Russia in the region and put various other partnerships there on hold.This week, the Council on Foreign Relations published a very helpful guide on the jostling among countries to capitalize on the shipping routes and energy resources that could be unlocked as the Arctic melts. The main players are the countries with Arctic Ocean coastlines: Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Norway, Russia, the United States (Alaska)—and, to a lesser extent, Finland, Iceland, and Sweden. These nations have generally agreed to work together to resolve territorial and environmental issues. But some sovereignty disputes persist, including American opposition to Russia's claims to parts of the Northern Sea Route above Siberia.
Here's CFR's infographic on where the Arctic's shipping and natural-resource potential is, and where the "Arctic Five" are most at odds with each other (you can even layer summer sea ice onto the map!):"Few countries have been as keen to invest in the Arctic as Russia, whose economy and federal budget rely heavily on hydrocarbons," CFR writes. "Of the nearly sixty large oil and natural-gas fields discovered in the Arctic, there are forty-three in Russia, eleven in Canada, six in Alaska, and one in Norway, according to a 2009 U.S. Department of Energy report."
"Russia, the only non-NATO littoral Arctic state, has made a military buildup in the Arctic a strategic priority, restoring Soviet-era airfields and ports and marshaling naval assets," the guide adds. "In late 2013, President Vladimir Putin instructed his military leadership to pay particular attention to the Arctic, saying Russia needed 'every lever for the protection of its security and national interests there.' He also ordered the creation of a new strategic military command in the Russian Arctic by the end of 2014."
Ultimately, the remarkable international cooperation we've seen in the North Pole may continue even amid the standoff in Ukraine. This week, for instance, government officials from the eight members of the Arctic Council, including Russia and the United States, went ahead with a summit in Canada. "The Russians have been quite cooperative in the Arctic during the past decade," international-law professor Michael Byers told The Canadian Press, "probably because they realize how expensive it would be to take another approach, especially one involving militarization….."