Energy outlook spells doomsday...

Energy outlook spells doomsday...By Michael T Klare

Rarely does the release of a data-driven report on energy trends trigger front-page headlines around the world. That, however, is exactly what happened on November 12 when the prestigious Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) released this year's edition of its World Energy Outlook. In the process, just about everyone missed its real news, which should have set off alarm bells across the planet.

Claiming that advances in drilling technology were producing an upsurge in North American energy output, World Energy Outlook predicted that the United States would overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the planet's leading oil producer by 2020. "North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world," declared IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven in a widely quoted statement.

In the US, the prediction of imminent supremacy in the oil-output sweepstakes was generally greeted with unabashed jubilation. "This is a remarkable change," said John Larson of IHS, a corporate research firm. "It's truly transformative. It's fundamentally changing the energy outlook for this country." Not only will this result in a diminished reliance on imported oil, he indicated, but also generate vast numbers of new jobs. "This is about jobs. You know, it's about blue-collar jobs. These are good jobs."

The editors of the Wall Street Journal were no less ecstatic. In an editorial with the eye-catching headline "Saudi America," they lauded US energy companies for bringing about a technological revolution, largely based on the utilization of hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") to extract oil and gas from shale rock. That, they claimed, was what made a new mega-energy boom possible. "This is a real energy revolution," the Journal noted, "even if it's far from the renewable energy dreamland of so many government subsidies and mandates."

Other commentaries were similarly focused on the US outpacing Saudi Arabia and Russia, even if some questioned whether the benefits would be as great as advertised or obtainable at an acceptable cost to the environment.

While agreeing that the expected spurt in US production is mostly "good news", Michael A Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations warned that gas prices will not drop significantly because oil is a global commodity and those prices are largely set by international market forces. "[T]he US may be slightly more protected, but it doesn't give you the energy independence some people claim," he told the New York Times.

Some observers focused on whether increased output and job creation could possibly outweigh the harm that the exploitation of extreme energy resources like fracked oil or Canadian tar sands was sure to do to the environment. Daniel J Weiss of the Center for American Progress, for example, warned of a growing threat to America's water supply from poorly regulated fracking operations. "In addition, oil companies want to open up areas off the northern coast of Alaska in the Arctic Ocean, where they are not prepared to address a major oil blowout or spill like we had in the Gulf of Mexico."

Such a focus certainly offered a timely reminder of how important oil remains to the American economy (and political culture), but it stole attention away from other aspects of the World Energy Report that were, in some cases, downright scary. Its portrait of our global energy future should have dampened enthusiasm everywhere, focusing as it did on an uncertain future energy supply, excessive reliance on fossil fuels, inadequate investment in renewables, and an increasingly hot, erratic, and dangerous climate. Here are some of the most worrisome takeaways from the report.

Shrinking world oil supply
Given the hullabaloo about rising energy production in the US, you would think that the IEA report was loaded with good news about the world's future oil supply. No such luck. In fact, on a close reading anyone who has the slightest familiarity with world oil dynamics should shudder, as its overall emphasis is on decline and uncertainty.

Take US oil production surpassing Saudi Arabia's and Russia's. Sounds great, doesn't it? Here's the catch: previous editions of the IEA report and the International Energy Outlook, its equivalent from the US Department of Energy (DoE), rested their claims about a growing future global oil supply on the assumption that those two countries would far surpass US output. Yet the US will pull ahead of them in the 2020s only because, the IEA now asserts, their output is going to fall, not rise as previously assumed.

This is one hidden surprise in the report that's gone unnoticed. According to the DoE's 2011 projections, Saudi production was expected to rise to 13.9 million barrels per day in 2025, and Russian output to 12.2 million barrels, jointly providing much of the world's added petroleum supply; the United States, in this calculation, would reach the 11.7 million barrel mark.

The IEA's latest revision of those figures suggests that US production will indeed rise, as expected, to about 11 million barrels per day in 2025, but that Saudi output will unexpectedly fall to about 10.6 million barrels and Russian to 9.7 million barrels. The US, that is, will essentially become number one by default. At best, then, the global oil supply is not going to grow appreciably - despite the IEA's projection of a significant upswing in international demand.

But wait, suggests the IEA, there's still one wild card hope out there: Iraq. Yes, Iraq. In the belief that the Iraqis will somehow overcome their sectarian differences, attain a high level of internal stability, establish a legal framework for oil production, and secure the necessary investment and technical support, the IEA predicts that its output will jump from 3.4 million barrels per day this year to 8 million barrels in 2035, adding an extra 4.6 million barrels to the global supply.

In fact, claims the IEA, this gain would represent half the total increase in world oil production over the next 25 years. Certainly, stranger things have happened, but for the obvious reasons, it remains an implausible scenario.

Add all this together - declining output from Russia and Saudi Arabia, continuing strife in Iraq, uncertain results elsewhere - and you get insufficient oil in the 2020s and 2030s to meet anticipated world demand. From a global warming perspective that may be good news, but economically, without a massive increase in investment in alternate energy sources, the outlook is grim.

You don't know what bad times are until you don't have enough energy to run the machinery of civilization. As suggested by the IEA, "Much is riding on Iraq's success ... Without this supply growth from Iraq, oil markets would be set for difficult times."

Continuing reliance on fossil fuels
For all the talk of the need to increase reliance on renewable sources of energy, fossil fuels - coal, oil, and natural gas - will continue to provide most of the additional energy supplies needed to satisfy soaring world demand. "Taking all new developments and policies into account," the IEA reported, "the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more sustainable path." In fact, recent developments seem to favor greater fossil-fuel reliance.

In the United States, for instance, the increased extraction of oil and gas from shale formations has largely silenced calls for government investment in renewable technology. In its editorial on the IEA report, for example, the Wall Street Journal ridiculed such investment. It had, the Journal's writers suggested, now become unnecessary due to the Saudi Arabian-style oil and gas boom to come. "Historians will one day marvel that so much political and financial capital was invested in a [failed] green-energy revolution at the very moment a fossil fuel revolution was aborning," they declared.

One aspect of this energy "revolution" deserves special attention. The growing availability of cheap natural gas, thanks to hydro-fracking, has already reduced the use of coal as a fuel for electrical power plants in the United States. This would seem to be an obvious environmental plus, since gas produces less climate-altering carbon dioxide than does coal. Unfortunately, coal output and its use haven't diminished: American producers have simply increased their coal exports to Asia and Europe. In fact, US coal exports are expected to reach as high as 133 million tons in 2012, overtaking an export record set in 1981.

Despite its deleterious effects on the environment, coal remains popular in countries seeking to increase their electricity output and promote economic development. Shockingly, according to the IEA, it supplied nearly half of the increase in global energy consumption over the last decade, growing faster than renewables. And the agency predicts that coal will continue its rise in the decades ahead. The world's top coal consumer, China, will burn ever more of it until 2020, when demand is finally expected to level off. India's usage will rise without cessation, with that country overtaking the US as the number two consumer around 2025.

In many regions, notes the IEA report, the continued dominance of fossil fuels is sustained by government policies. In the developing world, countries commonly subsidize energy consumption, selling transportation, cooking, and heating fuels at below-market rates. In this way, they hope to buffer their populations from rising commodity costs and so protect their regimes from popular unrest. Cutting back on such subsidies can prove dangerous, as in Jordan where a recent government decision to raise fuel prices led to widespread riots and calls for the monarchy's abolition. In 2011, such subsidies amounted to $523 billion globally, says the IEA, up almost 30% from 2010 and six times greater than subsidies for renewable energy.

No hope for averting catastrophic climate change
Of all the findings in the 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the one that merits the greatest international attention is the one that received the least. Even if governments take vigorous steps to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the report concluded, the continuing increase in fossil fuel consumption will result in "a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6 degrees C".

This should stop everyone in their tracks. Most scientists believe that an increase of 2 degrees Celsius is about all the planet can accommodate without unimaginably catastrophic consequences: sea-level increases that will wipe out many coastal cities, persistent droughts that will destroy farmland on which hundreds of millions of people depend for their survival, the collapse of vital ecosystems, and far more. An increase of 3.6 degrees C essentially suggests the end of human civilization as we know it.

To put this in context, human activity has already warmed the planet by about 0.8 degrees C - enough to produce severe droughts around the world, trigger or intensify intense storms like Hurricane Sandy, and drastically reduce the Arctic ice cap. "Given those impacts," writes noted environmental author and activist Bill McKibben, "many scientists have come to think that two degrees is far too lenient a target."

Among those cited by McKibben is Kerry Emanuel of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a leading authority on hurricanes. "Any number much above one degree involves a gamble," Emanuel writes, "and the odds become less and less favorable as the temperature goes up." Thomas Lovejoy, once the World Bank's chief biodiversity adviser, puts it this way: "If we're seeing what we're seeing today at 0.8 degrees Celsius, two degrees is simply too much."

At this point, it's hard even to imagine what a planet that's hotter by 3.6 degrees Celsius would be like, though some climate-change scholars and prophets - like former Vice President Al Gore in An Inconvenient Truth - have tried. In all likelihood, the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets would melt entirely, raising sea levels by several dozen feet and completely inundating coastal cities like New York and Shanghai. Large parts of Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, and the American Southwest would be rendered uninhabitable thanks to lack of water and desertification, while wildfires of a sort that we can't imagine today would consume the parched forests of the temperate latitudes.

In a report that leads with the "good news" of impending US oil supremacy, to calmly suggest that the world is headed for that 3.6 degree Celsius mark is like placing a thermonuclear bomb in a gaudily wrapped Christmas present. In fact, the "good news" is really the bad news; the energy industry's ability to boost production of oil, coal, and natural gas in North America is feeding a global surge in demand for these commodities, ensuring ever higher levels of carbon emissions.

As long as these trends persist - and the IEA report provides no evidence that they will be reversed in the coming years - we are all in a race to see who gets to the Apocalypse first.

Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, a TomDispatch regular, and the author, most recently, of The Race for What's Left (Metropolitan Books). A documentary movie based on his book Blood and Oil can be previewed and ordered at www.bloodandoilmovie.com. You can follow Klare on Facebook by clicking here.

Why France could become the biggest danger to Europe’s single currency...

The time-bomb at the heart of Europe...

 

THE threat of the euro’s collapse has abated for the moment, but putting the single currency right will involve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week (see article). But ahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France.
The country has always been at the heart of the euro, as of the European Union. President François Mitterrand argued for the single currency because he hoped to bolster French influence in an EU that would otherwise fall under the sway of a unified Germany. France has gained from the euro: it is borrowing at record low rates and has avoided the troubles of the Mediterranean. Yet even before May, when François Hollande became the country’s first Socialist president since Mitterrand, France had ceded leadership in the euro crisis to Germany. And now its economy looks increasingly vulnerable as well.
As our special report in this issue explains, France still has many strengths, but its weaknesses have been laid bare by the euro crisis. For years it has been losing competitiveness to Germany and the trend has accelerated as the Germans have cut costs and pushed through big reforms. Without the option of currency devaluation, France has resorted to public spending and debt. Even as other EU countries have curbed the reach of the state, it has grown in France to consume almost 57% of GDP, the highest share in the euro zone. Because of the failure to balance a single budget since 1981, public debt has risen from 22% of GDP then to over 90% now.
The business climate in France has also worsened. French firms are burdened by overly rigid labour- and product-market regulation, exceptionally high taxes and the euro zone’s heaviest social charges on payrolls. Not surprisingly, new companies are rare. France has fewer small and medium-sized enterprises, today’s engines of job growth, than Germany, Italy or Britain. The economy is stagnant, may tip into recession this quarter and will barely grow next year. Over 10% of the workforce, and over 25% of the young, are jobless. The external current-account deficit has swung from a small surplus in 1999 into one of the euro zone’s biggest deficits. In short, too many of France’s firms are uncompetitive and the country’s bloated government is living beyond its means.
Hollande at bay
With enough boldness and grit, Mr Hollande could now reform France. His party holds power in the legislature and in almost all the regions. The left should be better able than the right to persuade the unions to accept change. Mr Hollande has acknowledged that France lacks competitiveness. And, encouragingly, he has recently promised to implement many of the changes recommended in a new report by Louis Gallois, a businessman, including reducing the burden of social charges on companies. The president wants to make the labour market more flexible. This week he even talked of the excessive size of the state, promising to “do better, while spending less”.
Yet set against the gravity of France’s economic problems, Mr Hollande still seems half-hearted. Why should business believe him when he has already pushed through a string of leftish measures, including a 75% top income-tax rate, increased taxes on companies, wealth, capital gains and dividends, a higher minimum wage and a partial rollback of a previously accepted rise in the pension age? No wonder so many would-be entrepreneurs are talking of leaving the country.
European governments that have undertaken big reforms have done so because there was a deep sense of crisis, because voters believed there was no alternative and because political leaders had the conviction that change was unavoidable. None of this describes Mr Hollande or France. During the election campaign, Mr Hollande barely mentioned the need for business-friendly reform, focusing instead on ending austerity. His Socialist Party remains unmodernised and hostile to capitalism: since he began to warn about France’s competitiveness, his approval rating has plunged. Worse, France is aiming at a moving target. All euro-zone countries are making structural reforms, and mostly faster and more extensively than France is doing (see article). The IMF recently warned that France risks being left behind by Italy and Spain.
At stake is not just the future of France, but that of the euro. Mr Hollande has correctly badgered Angela Merkel for pushing austerity too hard. But he has hidden behind his napkin when it comes to the political integration needed to solve the euro crisis. There has to be greater European-level control over national economic policies. France has reluctantly ratified the recent fiscal compact, which gives Brussels extra budgetary powers. But neither the elite nor the voters are yet prepared to transfer more sovereignty, just as they are unprepared for deep structural reforms. While most countries discuss how much sovereignty they will have to give up, France is resolutely avoiding any debate on the future of Europe. Mr Hollande was badly burned in 2005 when voters rejected the EU constitutional treaty after his party split down the middle. A repeat of that would pitch the single currency into chaos.
Too big not to succeed?
Our most recent special report on a big European country (in June 2011) focused on Italy’s failure to reform under Silvio Berlusconi; by the end of the year he was out—and change had begun. So far investors have been indulgent of France; indeed, long-term interest rates have fallen a bit. But sooner or later the centime will drop. You cannot defy economics for long.
Unless Mr Hollande shows that he is genuinely committed to changing the path his country has been on for the past 30 years, France will lose the faith of investors—and of Germany. As several euro-zone countries have found, sentiment in the markets can shift quickly. The crisis could hit as early as next year. Previous European currency upheavals have often started elsewhere only to finish by engulfing France—and this time, too, France rather than Italy or Spain could be where the euro’s fate is decided. Mr Hollande does not have long to defuse the time-bomb at the heart of Europe...

The findings you are about to read have been shared with the United Nations, UK Parliament, and to select Fortune 500 Companies...

But they've never been released to the public before today...

Recently, a team that includes an energy adviser to 16 world governments, a pathologist, and an expert in non-linear trends in the financial markets uncovered a startling pattern that has led them to conclude that our futures may very well be...

The Ultimate
Pyramid Scheme!

Their controversial investigation was filmed with the purpose of alerting the public to this dangerous catastrophe that is just over the horizon...

Below is the official transcript

John Daly:

What if I told you that, in the coming years, many of the very things Americans take for granted, like our access to easy energy, cheap food and water...

Even the money in our pockets...

Could be gambled away, due to history's biggest Pyramid Scheme?

What if I could mathematically prove with one simple pattern, that the future we've been promised – is a lie inside of a lie.

And what if I told you that the world, as we know it, may soon become rife with conflict, and unrecognizable from the one we grew up in?

All frightening concepts.

But what if they're true?

And what if the only ones who will escape the Pyramid Scheme unscathed, before it collapses, are those who take the proper steps now.

Today, I'd like for you to join me as we investigate...

Hello, my name is John Daly.

And I want to thank you for participating in this critical event today.

For the longest time, Americans were led to believe that we lived in an age of perpetual prosperity...

By now, we know that was one all-encompassing illusion.

We saw the new reality firsthand, as the recession shook the very foundation of our economy.

Even today, we are still struggling to rebuild our great nation.

However, many voices we've come to look upon as authorities want you to believe that the worst is behind us.

Are they right?

Most Americans feel we are simply experiencing the calm before the storm.

A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a historic catastrophe is looming just over the horizon...

It may be an economic collapse.

A terrorist attack.

Or a natural disaster.

But only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.

In 2012, the state of Wyoming debated legislation known as the Doomsday Bill in case of events like these unfolding.

And in recent years, six other states contemplated similar measures.

USA Today recently wrote that some experts believe that...

And the Federal Reserve has prepared a study that assesses the possibilities of a future scenario where we see a 13% jobless rate, 50% Wall Street plunge, and a further 21% decline in housing prices.

People are scared.

They are concerned the days ahead will be darker and more uncertain than anything they've experienced before.

Now what if I told you that they are right to worry?

That a catastrophe is not only coming, but it is a mathematical certainty.

In this groundbreaking broadcast we are going to discuss the harsh realities regarding our future with a diverse team of scientists, economists, and energy analysts.

They've researched the likelihood and consequences of Peak Energy, American food and water shortages, resource wars, plus a coming global financial catastrophe, the likes of which, the world has never seen before.

And their analysis has led them to believe that our future has become one dangerous pyramid scheme that's on the verge of collapsing.

And when it does, it will put your investments, your wealth, and your way of life at risk.

In fact, their findings show that not only are the warning signs out there, you can easily see them by just observing an undeniable, mathematical pattern.

One that keeps appearing in many things critical to how our society functions.

Members of this acclaimed team of experts you are going to meet today have already presented their research to governments around the world and the United Nations.

And now they are going to walk you through an eye-opening, and, at times, frightening investigation.

So you can decide for yourself.

And just as importantly, they are going to show you how to prepare for the future.

In your day-to-day life... your finances... and your investments.

So before we begin... let's meet the team that will be conducting this investigation.

Dr. Kent Moors is one of the world's leading energy analysts.

He has advised 16 world governments on energy matters, and currently serves on two State Department task forces.

One that provides oil and energy policy to developing nations.

And another focused on Global Shale Gas development.

Dr. Moors also has an extensive background in counter intelligence, which has led him to be called upon regularly by the National Security Council, Department of Energy, and numerous government agencies.

And until recent revisions in U.S. policy, Dr. Moors was slated to be the deputy director of the Iraq Reconstruction Management Office in Baghdad.

---

Keith Fitz-Gerald is the Chairman of the Fitz-Gerald Group, as well as the Chief Investment Strategist for Money Map Press, where his daily analysis reaches 500,000 readers in 35 countries.

Keith has worked with think tanks around the world using his expertise in the science of complexity and in non-linear trends in the financial markets, to help policy makers predict future events, and prepare for them.

Keith's investigations have resulted in him predicting the 2008 oil shock, the credit default swap crisis that helped bring about the recession, and also the Greek and European fiscal catastrophe that is still wreaking havoc to this day.

His research into the coming resource wars has also made him a leading authority on determining where the next global conflicts will arise and what their trigger points will be.

---

Chris Martenson is a highly acclaimed author and scientist with a Ph.D. in Pathology from Duke University.

He is the former VP of a Fortune 300 company and has become an internationally recognized expert on the dangers of exponential growth in our energy, environment, and economy.

He has presented his powerful findings at the United Nations, the UK Parliament, State Legislatures Across the Country, and to major corporations.

Now I want to warn you in advance, that some of what you are about to hear may come as a shock to the system regarding your current beliefs.

But let me assure you that there is hope.

While the evidence is overwhelming, the next chapter of the story you are about to hear has yet to be written.

So let's get started by catching up with Chris, Keith and Kent as they lay out their plans for this investigation.

Part I: The Meeting

The Theory is Presented

Present at Investigation: Chris Martenson, Keith Fitz-Gerald, and Dr. Kent Moors
Location: A diner in Baltimore, MD.
Time: Monday Morning

Chris Martenson:

Around the turn of the millennium, I started taking an interest in exactly how the economy functions.

As a pathologist, I wanted to look at it through a scientist's eyes.

When I did, it wasn't long before I got this sense that a potential catastrophe was beginning to take shape.

One that threatened the prosperity and well being of all Americans, and most of the world.

My wife calls this period the time I "fell down the rabbit hole."

What I discovered is a very simple mathematical pattern that appears in many things critical to maintaining our way of life.

It's going completely undetected.

Probably, because it doesn't look out of the ordinary at first glance.

But when you dig deeper, it reveals, with absolute certainty, that our current path is unsustainable.

And it looks a lot like a Pyramid Scheme to me.

But unlike the Bernie Madoff situation, or any of the other ones we hear about on the news, this Pyramid Scheme isn't being carried out by an individual, or a group of criminals.

It's much bigger.

Its foundation is rooted in how we exist as a society.

We're all complicit to varying degrees in it.

Dr. Kent Moors:

Your research has definitely created a bit of a controversy.

And that's why we've all agreed to work together to investigate this Pyramid Scheme theory.

Chris Martenson:

It's only controversial because some folks in Washington and in other world governments refuse to accept reality.

The most important thing we need to get across to the American public about a Pyramid Scheme is that it is always unsustainable.

The end result is pre-determined.

The only thing in question is how long it takes to crash.

The proof is right in front of us - we're in the midst of one right now.

You can see a Pyramid Scheme loud and clear on a simple chart.

I can just draw it on this napkin.

You are two of the foremost experts in the world on what this basic image can mean.

Our job is to show people that this pattern could rob countless innocent folks of their wealth, freedoms, and frankly their futures.

We have to open people's eyes and give them a way out.

A way to position their investments, life savings, and daily decisions so that they are ready for what's coming.

Dr. Kent Moors Side Interview

The Dangers of Exponential Growth

Dr. Kent Moors:

What Chris drew on that napkin represents a dangerous pattern that our society has been built upon.

An exponential growth curve.  

Looks harmless on that napkin.  

But it's very troubling when applied to the real world.

When exponential growth creeps into a system...

Doesn't matter whether it's an economic system, energy system, or some simple system you may have at your job...

When that exponential growth begins, it's nice and calm.

It goes unnoticed for a long while, because that system stays small at first.

But what's happening underneath the radar is that system keeps doubling in size, over and over again, in shorter periods of time, until it hits unsustainable levels.

That's when chaos breaks out. 

With a traditional Pyramid Scheme you usually have some sort of crooked operation that survives off a constant influx of new people investing their money, so that the people on the top of the pyramid get paid.

You need exponential growth in the amount of investors, or else the pyramid scheme collapses when more and more people want their money back.

But our Pyramid Scheme theory suggests something entirely different.

That our way of life has been built upon unstable exponential growth needs.

The problem is, exponential growth patterns don't give you an early warning sign.

Because the dangers really speed up at the end, when it's too late to do anything about it.

Chris Martenson:

Now, to maintain our current way of life, the so-called American Dream, we have to rely on the false belief that we can preserve exponential growth forever in three systems, Energy, the Environment, and the Economy.

I call them the 3 Es.

The Economy on the top, with Energy, and the Environment forming the foundation.

An interconnected pyramid.

Looking at that top E – the economy - our GDP is a near perfect exponential growth curve, doubling and doubling repeatedly over the last 80 years.

But something that was experiencing even more dangerous exponential growth is our Total Credit Market debt.

Doubling around every 6 or 7 years since the mid-70s.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

If our economy would just continue to grow infinitely, we could keep this going for a little while longer.

But we'd also need to continue a pattern of exponential growth in our ability to find and harness more energy...

Grow more food from dwindling amounts of farmland...

Find new water sources from deeper beneath the ground...

Discover and mine a whole array of crucial minerals.

What we are finding out more, with each day that passes, is that all of these things are finite in nature.

But they are absolutely necessary for maintaining our current living standards in a modernizing world with 7 billion people...

Chris Martenson:

Unfortunately, politicians, pundits, and the mainstream media don't look at the big picture.

They focus on inflation, debt, or unemployment.

Or green energy obsessions versus drill, drill, drill.

Or high food and gas prices.

But they never look at how interconnected everything is.

If they did, they would see that these 3 Es form one big, historic crisis.

Dr. Kent Moors:

To really drive this Pyramid Scheme theory home we just need to have people begin asking themselves some very important questions.

What is the real fallout if the world is caught in the midst of an energy crisis?

Not just oil.  Energy across the board.

What if there's an international run on minerals, water, and food?

What if we can't continue to grow these areas exponentially for a global economy that's built on infinite expansion?

And what happens to America, and the entire world, if one piece of this puzzle falls behind, or even worse yet, all of them?

We have some very real issues to address that, for the first time in history, may find their way to American shores.

And I think that's the story people need to hear.

Will This Theory Hold Up to Scrutiny?

John Daly:

Let me jump in for a second.

Chris, Keith, and Kent have begun to outline their Pyramid Scheme theory.

But will this hold up to scientific scrutiny?

We aim to get to the bottom of that question today by exploring dangerous, exponential growth patterns in our energy, environment, and economic systems.

The three Es.

Then the team is going to connect them together to form the big picture... the pyramid... and what this means for our futures.

They'll also give you their analysis on how to protect your wealth and way of life when this catastrophe truly erupts.

In our first segment, you will discover why militaries from around the world believe we are running straight into a full-blown energy crisis.

We'll share some government reports, that were never meant to be seen by the public, which may reveal that our days of easy oil are behind us.

The team will assess all energy sources for their viability in helping us lessen the blow in the days after our petroleum-based economy comes to a close.

But you'll see how these solutions won't be enough to stop the Pyramid Scheme from crashing down.

And remember, Chris, Kent, and Keith are leading, international experts on energy.

In fact, Kent currently spends most of his time consulting with world leaders on this pressing issue.

For most of his career, he was on a 72-hour standby with our government for major energy issues.

Meaning, at any time, he could be taken for 3 days, with no warning whatsoever, to address major events in oil, anywhere on the planet.

So his viewpoint is not one to be taken lightly.

Now, before we dive deeper into this investigation, let me say that this is a complex issue.

And one we don't plan on rushing through.

Because you deserve the truth.

Part II: The Truth About Peak Energy

Present at Investigation: Chris Martenson, Keith Fitz-Gerald, and Dr. Kent Moors
Location: Cove Point, Natural Gas Facility.
Time:Monday Afternoon

Chris Martenson:

To keep this pyramid scheme from crashing down you need exponential growth to be maintained forever in those bottom two Es – energy and the environment.

They're the enablers of this whole setup.

With that first E – energy - we can see a clear cut case for exponential growth by simply analyzing the amount of energy we've consumed on this planet over the last 200 years or so.

It looks a lot like that image I drew on the napkin.

You see a long flat period followed by a quick rise.

And that pattern raises a big question.

What happens to our society, our economy, and just about everything else if we can't maintain this exponential growth pattern?

I think we're about to find out the answer.

But you won't hear the politicians in any party or the mainstream media bring this issue up because the big energy companies pad the "donations books" of everyone in DC.

And big energy pays for a lot of advertising during those supposedly unbiased news programs.

Money shapes the story of any issue in this country.

And the story the big energy money is selling us is that we've got nothing to worry about.

But they're wrong.

And I believe there is no quick fix for this energy predicament.

Dr. Kent Moors:

It's amazing that in the time since we kicked off the industrial revolution, we have basically extracted all of the easy energy there is to be had using our past, current, and near-future technologies.

And we're now so far behind the curve towards mass integration of any viable alternatives, like the natural gas that's here at Cove Point, that our society is on the cusp of an energy shock like we've never experienced.

There is no getting around this.

Look at oil.

New oil doesn't appear magically overnight. 

And neither do new oil refining processes.

The amount of oil on this planet is finite.

How finite is a big question on the minds of many scientists.

Chris Martenson:

This is why I've taken such an interest in the idea of Peak energy.

Peak Oil in particular.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

You know, it wasn't that long ago that "Peak Oil" was simply an extremist's view.

But the militaries of the world now seem to be taking it very seriously.

They're the ones driving the research because they realize its potential impact on economies, on maintaining a stable society, on exposing weaknesses in enemies, and for identifying where the geopolitical power shifts may occur.

It goes so far beyond filling up at the pump.

And it's essential to this Pyramid Scheme.

Dr. Kent Moors:

I've read and analyzed these military reports very carefully.

Some have a great deal of truth to them.

And others I'd suggest need to do a little more homework.

But these investigations are certainly sounding some serious alarms.

Last year, the U.S. Joint Forces Command released a study warning of a coming oil crisis that could begin any minute now.

They think this could be the year surplus global oil production entirely disappears.

And by 2015 we may be coming up 10 million barrels short every day.

But they're really only focusing on crude oil there, not the alternative oil forms.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

The investigation that caught my eye was the one from Germany's Federal Defense Force.

This draft was never meant to be seen by the public, but it was leaked.

I thought this was a game changer.

This report predicted that a future of dwindling oil supplies could lead to dramatic shifts in the global balance of power...

German Military's Findings About
the Realities and Consequences
of Peak Oil:

• "A chain reaction that might destabilize the global economic system is imaginable..."
• "Peak oil would bring about a decline in global prosperity."
• "The global economic system and all market-oriented economies would collapse..."
• Peak oil could lead to "political instability and extremism."
• "Peak oil, is unavoidable."

And a decline in the importance of the western industrial nations...

That means us.

They predicted peak oil could bring about a total collapse of the financial markets.

And serious social, political, and economic crises could strike the entire world.

If people were looking for a wake up call, this wasn't a bad one.

Chris Martenson:

You know Germany's findings were certainly the ones that garnered the most attention, but the UK also reached similar conclusions.

We know their Ministry of Defense, Bank of England, and Department of Energy were holding secret talks about peak oil.

It is something that is way beyond the realm of conspiracy theories these days.

And Americans need to prepare for it.

But they also need to understand it further.

Side Interview with Chris Martenson:

What is Peak Oil?

Chris Martenson:

Here's a quick breakdown on Peak Oil.

It's a theory that began in the mid-1950s from a man named Marion Hubbert.

Hubbert was a geoscientist, who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas.

His peak oil theory refers to the point in time where the world is unable to increase the supply of oil brought to the market because there just isn't as much to be extracted from the ground anymore.

It's not a matter of running out.

Let me be clear about that.

But it is a matter of slowing down.

The fact is world oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s.

And that, while we kept producing more and more oil in the decades after the so called "Peak," it became just a matter of extracting more oil at a faster rate than we're finding it.

Some organizations now believe we may have already passed the peak in the amount of oil we can bring out of the ground from those very wells.

Take the International Energy Agency.

The IEA.

Their data shows that the world may have begun to reach peak oil production around 2006.

The IEA's chief economist even stated that...

Many Americans believe we've become a net exporter of oil.

It's a very big misconception.

And that's possibly why this situation isn't getting the attention it deserves.

Here's the reality: We are a net exporter of oil-based products.

There's a big difference between that and being a net exporter of oil itself.

That just means our refineries are shipping out more gasoline and other products than we take in.

But it's still oil we imported in the first place that we are refining and then turning around and exporting out.

The hard truth is, we're very soon going to be living in a world of very expensive oil.

There was a meeting last year that included some high-ranking U.S. Government and military officials.

One of the participants was the National Security Advisor for President George W. Bush.

He proposed a simple question.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

If you want to know why there aren't many of the "powers that be" taking the peak oil situation too seriously, look at OPEC.

I believe they are blatantly lying to the public about how much oil they have in their reserves.

We know that while America, and much of the world, was seeing its production slow down back in the 1980s, somehow the Saudis were able to magically increase their "proven" oil reserves by as much as 127%.

But nobody audits OPEC, but OPEC.

People can say what they want about Wikileaks, but one thing that website may have done was expose some very dirty secrets about peak oil in the Middle East.

There were no less than 4 cables that were uncovered between the U.S. Embassy and Saudi officials that suggested Saudi oil reserves were being overestimated by as much as 40%.

And that peak oil was imminent.

Chris Martenson:

The Wikileaks weren't the only warnings of this.

Oxford University believes OPEC has been overestimating its reserves by a third.

And that we could enter into an oil crisis by 2014, when supply can't keep up with demand.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Right.

It's no mystery why Oxford sees a crisis looming.

If you are to believe OPEC, then they have about two and a half times the amount of oil in their reserves than the rest of the world combined.

Just imagine the impact if they are doctoring those numbers.

We could be talking about 426 billion barrels of crude oil... 13 years worth for the entire planet... not just the Middle East... gone.

Up in smoke.

Dr. Kent Moors:

I was recently at Windsor Palace in England meeting with UK ministers and ambassadors from 12 countries, and I explained that we have a very serious energy situation on our hands.

It's not one to be taken lightly.

But I will tell you, without any reservations, that the extremists' view on peak oil is built on a myth.

We won't go to sleep one night in an oil-rich nation, and wake up the next day, and it'll all be gone.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates we have about 2 trillion barrels of oil yet to be discovered.

They believe that'll last us 70 years at current consumption rates.

Now the caveat to that is the idea of "current consumption rates."

With what we are seeing in China, and the emerging markets, 70 years may be overshooting how long oil will last by a bit.

But we won't go dry anytime soon.

Here's the real situation...

We have long reached, and passed, the days of easy and cheap oil.

What we are doing to cope is transitioning from more traditional crude oil, the cheap stuff, to the unconventional forms like shale, bitumen, and oil sands.

This stuff is much more expensive and energy intensive to get out of the ground and bring to the market.

And it eventually means dramatically higher costs.

We've got a race against time on our hands here that we aren't going to win.

Eventually, oil will become so costly, it will force America to finally transition off it.

But the problem is we haven't taken anywhere near the necessary steps to make a bold leap into something like the natural gas that comes through this facility.

In a few years, we'll all look back and wish we had $7- or $10-a-gallon gasoline.

And that's for the cheap stuff.

I mean, they're already paying that in Europe.

But you're not just going to feel it at the pump.

You're going to feel it everywhere.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Global demand, alone, is going to push oil prices through the roof.

Between now and 2035 you have 90% of the world's population growth, and 90% of the energy growth, coming from emerging markets.

Oil companies know this because they've already dog-eared $20 trillion towards finding new oil from more difficult places.

Because crude is going to be that valuable.

And it will hit all of our wallets hard.

But this still doesn't mean the oil isn't there.

40 or 50 years from now is a different story.

Chris Martenson:

I think between 2013 and 2016, Peak Oil will become an internationally recognized, indisputable fact.

And when that happens, oil will be $300-a-barrel at its cheapest.

So where do you see oil prices heading?

Dr. Kent Moors:

I see that price eventually.

Maybe the backend of your timeframe.

But what I'm about to say, I was recently told directly by multiple ambassadors from the Gulf Coordination Council in a private meeting.

They represent the oil interests of the Persian Gulf.

So we're talking OPEC folks here.

They told me that, by 2014, they have to have a minimum, I want to stress minimum, price of $125-a-barrel to maintain their economies in the Middle East.

So without any other factors in play, that'll be the lowest oil can ever go again.

But we know that there are always other factors that come into the oil game.

So my take is that $150-a-barrel will be the "new norm" very soon.

What I mean by that is, we'll hit a point where, regardless of whatever economic pullbacks and events take place, that will be the lowest price oil ever drops to.

And that time is not that far off.

Probably 2013.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

I'll one up you Kent.

I think we could hit $200-a-barrel in 2013.

Although, we could see some quick panics if Iran decides to play geopolitical Russian Roulette and blocks the Strait of Hormuz.

Or even worse yet, they break out into conflict with Israel.

Also, a terrorist attack hitting an OPEC nation could have big implications for America, too.

That could lead to temporary gas lines and dramatically inflated prices in the short term.

And then $200-a-barrel will look like roses compared to reality.

Dr. Kent Moors:

I agree.

The solutions we hear politicians and so-called energy experts talk about on TV never take into account one alarming trend that's been getting worse and worse over the last century.

The ratio of Energy Return on Energy Invested.

Side Interview with Dr. Kent Moors:

The Death of Oil's EROEI

Dr. Kent Moors:

Energy Return on Energy Invested, or EROEI for short, simply measures how much energy it takes to get energy out of the ground.

In the 1930s you could get about 100 barrels of oil out of the ground for every one barrel you used.

By 1970 that figure was 25-barrels-to-one.

Today, we're only getting about 3, maybe 5, barrels of oil, for every one barrel of energy we use to extract it.

It's another exponential growth curve.

And what's unfortunate is that trend is not likely to improve, regardless of where we choose to drill.

Whether it's Alaska or the Gulf of Mexico.

As an oil guy, it pains me to say that.

So if we find out we have some untapped treasure trove of oil somewhere deep underground, it will still be incredibly expensive to get it, simply because of this EROEI ratio.

Chris Martenson:

It's undeniable that the United States' conventional crude oil production peaked in 1970.

Forty-eight other countries saw similar peak oil situations, including Indonesia, which used to be an OPEC member.

We just don't get the major oil finds anymore like we used to.

The press went crazy when another big oil well was discovered in the Campos Basin in Brazil.

As much as 250 million barrels of oil are believed to be there.

But that would represent a fraction of what we found in oil's hey day.

The Tupi Oil field, also in Brazil, is a similar story.

Now some of the unconventional forms of oil are certainly getting a lot of press.

Look at shale oil.

At first glance, it is pretty exciting.

In just the last 3 years alone, Texas has seen a 230-fold increase in their output of crude oil that's derived from shale.

That's about a 23,000% spike.

It's mostly coming from the Eagle Ford basin.

Unfortunately, the Eagle Ford basin is believed to have only a total of 3 billion barrels of oil for discovery.

And similar big shale formations in the Bakken in North Dakota can only deliver about 128 million barrels a year.

It's small potatoes compared to what we used to find.

Dr. Kent Moors:

Here's another way to look at it, global oil consumption is now about 89 million barrels a day.

So we could theoretically use up all of the annual production of these big fields in 2-3 days.

So we better hope there are trillions of barrels of crude lying under the water in the arctic if we are going to place our chips down on oil for the long term.

And that isn't a very safe bet at the prices oil is going to hit in the coming years.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

If more of the American public asked themselves two questions...

What happens when oil becomes too expensive because the easy stuff isn't just lying there under the surface to grab...

And what happens if we aren't prepared for it?

They might be much more worried about their futures.

Because this crisis will put more of a strain on the already dangerous exponential growth patterns present in our environment and economy.

And this will cause the date of the pyramid scheme's ultimate collapse to speed up.

It's Impossible to Flip a Switch
and Fix This...

John Daly:

The team has made the case that we are in for some hard times regarding oil.

But maybe you are holding out hope for an alternative source of energy to sweep in and replace it.

We'll discuss that next.

But remember, you can't just flip a switch and transition to a new type of energy.

It can require tens of trillions of dollars of investments in infrastructure and technology.

And it's never been done quickly.

Consider this, it took about 100 years to transition from wood being the primary energy resource to coal.

And then another 100 years for coal to be overtaken by oil in 1964.

So what viable replacements for oil exist?

And until one steps up, will an energy crisis play a role in this Pyramid Scheme theory the team has presented?

Find out ahead.

But first, let me say that we're going to cover a lot of ground today.

This is a very serious subject matter, and you deserve the real story on it.

Energy is just our first topic.

We're also going to review potentially catastrophic exponential growth patterns in our environment and economy.

Do Realistic Alternatives to Oil Exist?

Chris Martenson:

Outside of wind and solar, the renewable energy sources don't offer the kinds of EROEI returns we need to, A, meet our exponential growth demands for energy...

And B, fuel continued exponential growth in our environment and economy.

But solar and wind are impractical for mass adoption and will continue to be for a very long time.

Plus, neither gives us liquid fuels, no matter how high their EROEI ratio is.

And liquid fuels are what we most need to run our economy.

Methanol and biodiesel can't cut it, either.

And ethanol is so inefficient, in many cases, it takes as much energy to produce it as it actually contains.

Dr. Kent Moors:

We are going to be forced to lean on a lot of inefficient energy sources in the future, including oil.

Take the Keystone Pipeline.

The oil coming out of that is primarily from the tar sands.

The EROEI for that is around 2.9, which is highly inefficient compared to what we used to get.

But all of the energy options have their faults.

Windmills don't make for great hood ornaments.

And solar panels don't have the juice to get you, or an 18-wheeler, down the highway.

Chris Martenson:

Coal is an interesting story, too.

We produce a lot of it that's for sure.

So much so, there are some experts who want us to believe that we have 250 years of it left in the United States alone.

But you have to dig deeper than that.

We are barely mining the high quality coal.

Anthracite.

Critical to steel production.

It hardly exists in America anymore.

Gone over the last 100 years.

The low quality grade, the subbituminous coal, we've got tons of that.

That's why, over the last 50 years or so, we keep growing coal production by about 2% annually.

But the energy we get from those bigger hauls is flatlining.

So we're getting less from more.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

So here's where we stand from our discussion so far.

We have peak oil. We have peak quality coal. And we didn't touch on it yet, but we have a similar peak situation with uranium for nuclear plants.

China has been stockpiling uranium.

The U.S. went on a mid-2000s buying frenzy.

And much of the world has been using uranium from decommissioned nuclear warheads because what's left in the ground is low grade.

In fact, the best uranium now is about 10% pure.

That's up in Canada.

But most of the other stuff is between .1% and 1% pure.

So once again, you have a situation where it takes a great deal more energy to extract lower qualities from the ground.

Dr. Kent Moors:

We have one solution in front of us that can act as a bridge until we make some sort of breakthrough in a renewable option.

Natural gas.

But I'm not quite sure it will help us all feel comfortable about the future.

The big problem here is that, while natural gas is very cheap, the infrastructure is not in place, and we'd have issues getting mass adoption without a complete government intervention.

Which isn't going to happen the way Congress and the White House behave with one another these days.

But even with those hurdles, I think America is going to lean on natural gas as much as possible going forward.

That EROEI ratio for natural gas is pretty healthy right now.

It falls around 15 to 1.

So it's much better than oil.

And there's a whole lot of natural gas.

An estimated 100 years-worth in America alone.

Plus, we've got 487,000 natural gas wells across 30 states right now.

So some big positives there.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Unfortunately, by my estimates, we have 60,000 processes in this country that rely on petroleum.

Everything from growing and transporting food to household items needed to make our lives easier.

It costs $35,000 to convert a truck engine to natural gas right now.

$18,000 for a regular car.

And out of the 117,000 gas stations in America, only 500 offer natural gas to the public.

And even though you have a country like France that offers 62 natural gas cars to choose from, here in America, you'll be extremely lucky to find a couple at your local dealership.

So even with natural gas as a viable option, we've got a long road ahead before it replaces oil.

Chris Martenson:

The real negative is the time to start this massive overhaul of our energy system was in the 1970s when the U.S. peaked in oil production.

Fortunately, we aren't starting from scratch with natural gas.

But since we haven't taken the necessary steps to integrate it into our society, I estimate we are at least 20 years behind the curve.

And we don't have twenty years.

We might not have even five before oil becomes too expensive for society.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

So what we're left with is a very solid case that the first of the three Es – energy - guarantees that our Pyramid Scheme theory comes to fruition.

Because if our energy system can't continue to grow exponentially, it definitely won't be able to power exponential growth in our environment.

And certainly not in our economy.

So we should talk about that next.

Energy is Just the First Domino to Fall...

John Daly:

If our ability to harness cheap energy is limited, this will send shockwaves throughout our society.

So a little later the team will address what this energy crisis means for our country, national security, and your prosperity.

But first, to further examine the Pyramid Scheme, we need to discuss the other two "Es."

Now I want to reiterate something I mentioned at the beginning of this broadcast.

The next chapter in the story has yet to be written.

You can take steps to protect your wealth and way of life.

So let's move on to the environment.

The second E.

You are about to discover why we may be struck by American food shortages in the coming years.

You'll hear a startling 200-year-old prediction from an English Pastor that may now be coming true.

And you'll see why, by 2015, the world could experience armed conflict over water... not oil.

Energy was just the first domino to fall.

The next two will really drive home the fact that our future is one big Pyramid Scheme.

Part III: The Perils of Peak Environment!

Present at Investigation: Chris Martenson, Keith Fitz-Gerald, and Dr. Kent Moors
Location: American Farm, Westminster, MD.
Time: Tuesday morning

Chris Martenson:

I always find it interesting to listen to people talk about the relationship between energy and the environment.

Mostly, because I think the wrong story is being told.

It's usually being driven by an environmentalists' agenda.

I'll let folks come to their own conclusions there.

What I'm most concerned with is that, just like with energy, we also rely on exponential growth patterns with many different aspects of our environment.

Realistically, we couldn't maintain these patterns even if we had unlimited energy, but since we don't, it really is the final nail in that coffin.

Now it would be nearly impossible to investigate all of these exponential growth factors in the environment.

So I feel we are best suited to focus on the two areas that people think about the most.

Food and water.

By just linking those two areas to our Pyramid Scheme theory and showing how they are interconnected with our energy and economic systems, I think we'll be able to present a fairly open and shut case.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Well we've come to the right place to do just that.

Look around gentlemen, because this is something that is going extinct in this country.

Your average American farm.

For a long time now, we've been seeing less and less of these kinds of farms across the American landscape.

And I predict that it's going to get much worse as energy prices surge.

Because you can't grow food without oil.

You can't fertilize it.

You can't harvest it.

You can't transport it.

So what happens when energy becomes too expensive?

You're going to have a mass exodus of small farmers across this country.

Side Interview with Keith Fitz-Gerald:

The Extinction of Average American Farmers!

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Back in Thomas Jefferson's day, nine out of 10 people in this country were farmers.

When Lincoln became president, half of the country was still making a living off the land.

By the time FDR was sworn in, that number had dropped to two out of every 10 Americans.

Now, only one out of every 500 Americans, is a full-time farmer.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

So with fewer farmers and nearly 313 million mouths to feed in this country, where is the food going to come from?

A Growing Commodity Crisis Since the Millennium...

Wheat is up 172%
Beef is up 118%
Corn is up 221%
Sugar is up 302%
Oil is up 351%

One place - Factory farms.

Agribusiness is booming in America.

Because the basic economics of the food system in our country are pricing it right out of the average farmer's budget.

And this all plays a big role in that second E, in our Pyramid Scheme theory... the environment.

Dr. Kent Moors:

Here's what we know.

The prices of food staples like wheat, beef, corn, sugar, and just about every food item are up big since the millennium.

But, so is oil.

That's not a coincidence.

Farmland prices have also been going through the roof lately.

And that's because there is so much less of it now.

Over the last 25 years alone, America has converted over 41 million acres of land into condos, strip malls, and other developments.

That's the equivalent of removing Illinois and New Jersey from the map.

Add it up.

You've got higher food prices, higher fuel costs, more people, and less land to use for growing food.

So farming is now, more than ever, a volume business.

And factory farms are the big winner there.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

It is interesting when you consider that last year farm revenues were the highest on record.

Yet Time Magazine found that 82% of the income average farmers bring in is now coming from non-farm sources.

So that means most average farmers have just become part-timers.

They've been driven out by the factory farms.

Chris Martenson:

Now here's a scary thought.

What if our future offers no other choice but factory farms?

Big conglomerate entities instead of the kinds of farms we've known all of our lives.

I think we are left with no other choice here because of some very obvious exponential growth trends we're running headfirst into.

The United Nations' future population estimates form a near-perfect exponential growth curve.

And it shows you that we're well on our way to a tipping point here.

More people put a larger drain on our energy needs.

They require more food, more money, more everything.

If you narrow the focus to just America over the last 100 years, you'll see that our food consumption patterns are growing even faster.

Meaning we are eating more food, per person, while our population explodes, and our farmland disappears.

So factory farms are going to be a necessary evil, just to keep the food coming.

But it's still unsustainable.

The average person in this country is responsible for 32 metric tons worth of food, water, minerals, and energy from the environment every single year.

China and India are modernizing at a rapid rate.

So their populations will put more of a strain on our ability to divvy up the resources.

At least in a cost-effective manner.

The UN believes we have to double our food production by 2050 to meet the demands of growing world populations.

Where is that food going to come from?

Only about 1/10th of the land on this planet is suitable for farming.

About 40% you could put cattle and animals on.

So that's about half of the land we can't do anything with.

And we may have to embrace factory farms, if we want to get by.

But even those giant agricultural entities are going to fall victim to our Pyramid Scheme theory in the future.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

I agree.

Those factory farms require a lot of energy to operate.

Right now the cycle of bringing food from the farm to the market takes up 2/3rds of the United States' domestic oil production.

The average American's food intake for the year requires 400 gallons of oil to bring it to the kitchen table.

It takes a pound of diesel to make a pound of fertilizer.

So if you've got a big family, you are using a lot of oil just to eat.

We are going to need unprecedented innovation in how, and where, we grow food to keep up with the rising numbers in our population.

We're going to need big technological leaps in plowing, fertilizer, forest management...you name it.

But where are they?

And will they appear in time to avoid a severe crisis?

Chris Martenson:

We saw phosphate fertilizer prices rise 350% from 2003 to 2008, and in 2008 food riots broke out in 40 countries.

I don't think that's a coincidence.

And I think American food shortages are not a matter of "if," but a matter of when.

To think we couldn't experience that kind of crisis would be foolish.

Especially when food prices will soar in the future.

Plus, America currently imports 100% of its needs for 18 minerals and elements.

We are already beginning to accuse China of hoarding minerals.

This will only get worse as our demands increase and these resources become ever more scarce.

Which means we'll all feel the strain on our bank accounts.

People without the necessary financial stability to afford these increases will have some tough decisions to make.

Side Interview with Chris Martenson:

The Prophetic Warning of Reverend Thomas Malthus

Chris Martenson:

Back in the early 1800s a Reverend Thomas Malthus was one of the first to predict that the world's explosive population growth would eventually overrun our ability to feed ourselves.

He was a highly controversial figure, but his theories have become a mainstay with many biologists and economists.

Malthus even went as far as to write that the power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.

Pretty extreme words.

And they didn't come true in his day.

But back in Malthus' time there were only 1 billion people on the planet.

It took another 123 years to hit that second billion.

33 more years to hit three billion.

14 years to hit four billion.

13 years to hit five billion.

12 years to hit six billion.

And now we're at 7 billion.

It's a near perfect trend of exponential growth.

And Malthus didn't have to deal with similar and equally dangerous exponential growth patterns in energy, like we do now.

So maybe his worries about peak food were early...

But eventually they may turn out to be frighteningly accurate.

Part IV: Will Wars Be Soon Fought Over Water?

Present at Investigation: Chris Martenson, Keith Fitz-Gerald, and Dr. Kent Moors
Location: Potomac River, Washington D.C.
Time: Tuesday Afternoon

Dr. Kent Moors:

I think water will be a very topical issue in this country within the next decade.

Look at where we're at now.

The Potomac River.

Runs through D.C., Maryland, Virginia.

There are 7 cities right along this 7-mile stretch here.

Most people don't think about it, but energy plays a critical role in our ability to use water.

And we all know we need a lot of it to grow food.

Unfortunately, water is also experiencing startling exponential growth patterns for agricultural use.

The same pattern is appearing for our domestic water use.

And also for our industrial purposes.

Water plays an enormous role in our Pyramid Scheme theory.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

It sure does.

I was a part of a think tank meeting in Zurich a couple of years back that investigated the future of water.

This is a much bigger issue than people realize.

We concluded that the likelihood of armed conflicts arising over water will be extremely high by 2015.

I'm talking higher than oil or Democracy.

That means it's an almost near-certainty.

What makes this notion hard to grasp for some is that we aren't running out of water.

There's plenty of water around us in lakes, ponds, oceans.

We have the same amount of water on this planet now as we've had for our entire history.

About 360 quintillion gallons.

That's 360 with 18 zeros behind it.

The problem is, 97% of all water is saltwater.

So you can't drink it, or use it for a lot of agriculture.

And converting it to freshwater is problematic because it's energy intensive and time consuming.

Which is another predicament all in itself, because in just the last 10 years alone, freshwater demand across the planet has spiked 58%.

I find that startling.

So right there water becomes a big factor in all 3 Es – our energy, environment, and economic systems.

Chris Martenson:

You are absolutely right.

These are the facts, and I think we can quickly see how they fit into our Pyramid Scheme theory.

An average person consumes about 731,000 liters of water a year.

Either by drinking it or in the foods we eat.

And that's without even counting our showers, car washes, or anything else we can think of.

Now put that in perspective with a world that's adding the equivalent of over eight New York cities-worth of population annually, and you can see the problem compounding and compounding.

Dr. Kent Moors:

The water around us here isn't what we need to be concerned about.

Only about a third of one percent of all freshwater on this planet, just the freshwater, is found in rivers like this, or lakes.

The water that's a problem is way down beneath the surface, the aquifers.

These deep wells are the lifeblood of cities across our country, and entire regions of the world.

And they are becoming unstable, because it takes many human lifetimes to refill these aquifers.

Chris Martenson:

Aquifers don't get much press, but they should.

Look at the Ogallala aquifer.

It touches about 8 different states in the Midwest.

It's massive.

It provides drinking water for 2 million people.

And it's primarily responsible for 30% of the water this entire country uses for irrigation.

Here's where the cause for concern lies: It may be completely drained within 25 years.

And it takes 6,000 years to refill.

That's a great deal of cities at risk there of future water shortages to say nothing of the agriculture issues...

Dr. Kent Moors:

You've got a similar story with Lake Mead out in Arizona.

That helps keep Phoenix supplied with water.

The Scripps Institution gives Lake Mead a 50-50 chance of being dry by 2021.

But the problem is widespread.

You can go back as far as 2003 and see the GAO warning that 36 states are at risk of serious water shortages by 2013, because of this aquifer issue.

Chris Martenson:

You know, water is heavy stuff.

If you can imagine a box that's a little over 3 feet long on all sides, it'd take a ton of water to fill it up.

So as these aquifers get drained, it takes more and more energy to raise that water to the surface from deeper depths.

This is a very big concern in some parts of the world.

Much more so than the United States.

Which is why conflict could be a foregone conclusion with water.

Half of the energy used in large parts of India now is spent extracting water from pipes that have to run way down beneath the surface for irrigation.

China's water use over the last 100 years is a very aggressive exponential growth curve in itself.

But they aren't alone.

Pakistan, Mexico, the Middle East, and North Africa are all working off of borrowed time with their water supplies.

Some of those places aren't exactly a model in stability.

Now here's something most people probably don't think of.

Over the years the United States has produced about 10% of the world's wheat, but we are the number one exporter of it.

Here's where water plays a big role...

It takes 1,000 tons of water to harvest one ton of wheat.

And that water is coming from irrigation not rainfall.

So when we are exporting wheat to countries with water issues, what we are really doing is exporting water.

So if water becomes scarce in parts of the world, that'll hike its value.

Which will hike food prices.

And that will come back to hit average Americans because everything is priced on world availability, not just how much of it we have inside our borders.

Dr. Kent Moors:

Water scarcity also creates a massive energy security issue.

Nuclear and coal power plants use large amounts of water to harness energy.

Who's big in nuclear and coal?

China.

So if you can't easily get the water, you create a situation where energy becomes even costlier.

And water becomes more valuable than oil.

In fact, half of the water consumed in the United States isn't consumed by people.

But by electrical power plants.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Okay, I think we've made our case for a peak environment scenario, which is directly tied to our peak energy predicament.

I think we can talk about that final E.

Continuing to Build the Case...

John Daly:

So let's continue to put the pieces of this Pyramid Scheme puzzle together.

By now you can see it's spreading out far and wide.

World population took from the beginning of time until 1804 to reach 1 billion people.

208 years later we're sitting at 7 billion.

That's exponential growth.

And it has had an impact on the total scope of this Pyramid Scheme theory.

With our first E – I think the team made the compelling case that unsustainable, exponential growth patterns show the days of easy energy are behind us.

Looking solely at oil, we can see it's a poster child for exponential growth.

Unfortunately, the process of extracting oil is becoming harder and harder, because the easy stuff is no longer there.

Oil's worsening EROEI ratio is its own example of exponential growth.

Now, while there are some long-term opportunities, either the technology, or infrastructure, or some combination of factors isn't quite there yet for us to be able to quickly transition into a post-oil world.

At least, not before we feel the effects of crippling price hikes in oil.

So that means we cannot continue to experience exponential growth with our energy system.

Well, that domino falling crashes into our second E, the environment.

Our food consumption rates have been rising even faster than our population.

And we've been fortunate, for a long time, to lean on technological advances to increase the productivity we've gotten from smaller and smaller amounts of farmland...

From fewer and fewer farmers.

But less easy energy will make it harder to feed the masses.

And it certainly will make it more expensive.

But expensive food and, possibly, American food shortages are only one part of that second E.

We are seeing dangerous and unsustainable exponential growth patterns all over the environment.

Especially with our water needs.

So what happens when you have Peak Energy and Environment situations crash straight into an American and global economy that is dangerously fragile, and on the brink of collapse?

You have the makings of an unsustainable Pyramid Scheme.

So that leads us to that final E... the Economy.

The team will investigate the dangers of exponential growth there next.

But first let me say that in a few minutes we'll send you a 100% free package that contains all of the proof and findings from our investigation...

This package includes an eye-opening book with information that has never been released to the public before today.

And you'll be sent time-sensitive reports that will reveal the steps to take to protect you and your family's investments, wealth, and way of life, in the days, months, and years ahead.

It's imperative you get your hands on this information.

So make sure you stay with us to the end of this broadcast.

Part V: The Peak Economy Crisis

Present at Investigation: Chris Martenson, Keith Fitz-Gerald, and Dr. Kent Moors
Location: Congress, Washington D.C.
Time: Tuesday Afternoon

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Here we stand at the epicenter of this Pyramid Scheme.

Congress.

You can trace a good portion of the roots of this massive crisis right here.

It was our friends inside the beltway who dropped the ball on our energy policy.

They're the ones who refused to create an atmosphere that promoted innovation and the technological advances that could help us curb these exponential growth issues in our environment.

And they sure as hell are the prime crooks behind that top E in our Pyramid Scheme, the Economy.

America is the biggest economy in the world, and it's showing a similar exponential growth curve, to everything else we've investigated today.

Side Interview with Chris Martenson:

The Final 5% Before We Drown?

Chris Martenson:

Exponential growth is a complicated idea.

And when you first hear it, it's role in this Pyramid Scheme theory may not click right away.

That's why, when I'm presenting my findings, doesn't matter if I'm meeting with the United Nations or a group of Americans...

I always use the same scenario to help clarify this situation.

And it applies perfectly when you look at our economy.

Imagine somebody is handcuffed to the top bleacher in Yankee Stadium.

And now imagine Yankee Stadium is watertight.

So now suppose somebody takes an eyedropper out to the very center of the stadium.

And that person lets one drop of water come out of the eye-dropper.

And then, let's imagine that amount doubles the next minute and every minute that follows.

So how long before that person who is handcuffed at the very top of Yankee Stadium drowns?

It's only 50 minutes.

So here's the really important question.

At what point is that stadium still 93% empty?

45 minutes.

It's those last 5 minutes where most of the exponential growth kicks in, the dangers present themselves, and chaos breaks out.

I strongly believe that we are well into those final 5 minutes with the 3 Es – energy, the environment, and the economy.

And since they are all interconnected, the Pyramid Scheme will soon come crashing down.

You just need to know what that means and what steps to take with your finances, investments, and day-to-day life to prepare for it.

Chris Martenson:

When you break it down, to its simplest form, our economic system is based on an absurd scenario.

John Smith goes into a bank and deposits $1,000.

The bank turns around and lends $900 of it out.

So that $900 makes its way into another bank which loans $810 of it out.

And so on.

Because banks can legally lend up to 90% of their deposits right back out.

After a little while that $1,000 in real money, has turned into $10,000 in fake money because of it being loaned into existence.

This is how banks operate, the Fed operates. Every financial institution on the planet operates in this same way.

And what nobody talks about is the impact this is having on our Total Credit Market debt.

In the mid 1940s our total credit market debt sat at around $351 billion dollars.

And our GDP was $223 billion.

So you had a total credit market debt that was 158% higher than the GDP.

That was the high mark of that ratio for about 30 years.

And we had World War II to fight back then to inflate it.

But around the mid-1970s our total credit market debt began to rise rapidly.

Starting in 1970 it took seven years to double.

Then another seven to do it again.

Then five years to double it again after that.

We had a little bit of a slowdown in the late eighties and 90s, and it took ten years for the next doubling.

But then it only took eight years to double again.

And it's moving much faster than our GDP is growing.

Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s...

By 2011 that figure was 357%.

Right now it represents about $691,000 for a family of four in America.

It's unfathomable.

Now, in order for the twenty-teens to economically resemble any of the past four decades, we might reasonably speculate that credit market debt would have to double again, to over $104 trillion.

What about the 2020s?

Are we going to be able to maintain exponential growth for our credit market debt to hit $208 trillion?

Dr. Kent Moors:

Of course not.

At least not if a dollar is still worth anything resembling a dollar in today's terms.

Which it won't be.

It's going to take a lot of energy, a lot of environmental factors, and a lot more gambling in our economy, to give us even a lottery ticket's chance of continuing this exponential growth.

This pyramid scheme is completely unsustainable.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Not to mention while we were busy loaning money into existence, we were also printing a great deal of it.

All while our debt surged to astronomical levels...

Eventually, foreign countries are not going to trust that investing in America is a safe bet.

To this point, we've been fortunate in some respects that the European Crisis has made us the best looking horse at the glue factory.

Dr. Kent Moors:

Of course the Fed really likes to just focus on the debt that's on the books.

If you look at the total net liabilities figure, you'll see we've got a much bigger problem on our hands than just our Federal debt tab.

And that's setting us up for a situation worse than we've seen in Greece and across Europe.

This is exactly what happens when you have an economy that is built on the same model as a Pyramid Scheme.

One that requires you to falsely believe in the sustainability of loaning money into existence.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

What we're seeing with the austerity measures in Greece and the deleveraging with banks, is a pattern that is going to keep reoccurring for the next 10-20 years.

There's no way around it with all the excessive debt in this world.

Plus, there's an estimated $600 trillion to $1.4 quadrillion floating around right now in the global derivatives market.

And a good chunk of that is tied directly to American banks.

So the unsustainability of the American and European economic systems is quite clear and very real.

These idiots inside the Washington Beltway and their cohorts in Europe do not understand the realities of the situation.

But when this fiscal nightmare, this Pyramid Scheme, they've created over the past few decades, runs into these energy and environment issues we've discussed, it's going to be bedlam.

The next round of global superpowers knows this.

It's why both their governments and private citizens are demanding more and more gold.

Gold is a great barometer for what the world thinks of our economy and our dollar.

And the clear message they are sending is that they have no faith in us over the long haul.

Gentlemen, we could spend weeks debating and analyzing more dangerous exponential growth patterns in our Pyramid Scheme theory.

We've just scratched the surface.

But I think we should now focus on what's going to happen exactly when this Pyramid Scheme collapses.

What that means for our futures.

And, more importantly, how people should go about preparing their finances and lives for it.

Because even as scary as this situation is, there are still unprecedented opportunities out there that not only allow for protection, but also immense profit potential.

The Team Has Made Their Case...

John Daly:

As I mentioned before, much of what you've just seen has been presented to governments around the world and the United Nations.

They've shared their findings with them, and now Chris, Keith, and Kent have come together to bring their findings to you.

You're the one who will feel the impact.

So you need to know what all of this means for you and your family's well-being.

They've given you all of the proof for what has happened in the past.

And what is happening now.

But what comes next?

And will you be prepared for it?

We'll discuss that shortly.

I also want you to remind you to stay with us to the very end of this broadcast.

Because, in a few minutes, I will give you an opportunity to receive a 100% free package that contains all of the proof we've discussed today, including an eye-opening book that documents what the future may hold for us.

And you'll also receive a collection of highly sensitive reports critical for maintaining and growing your wealth in an uncertain future.

That's coming up ahead.

But let's get the closing thoughts of each of the experts you've met today.

This way you can get a clear picture of what the future holds and what you need to do next to prepare for the coming crash of the Pyramid Scheme.

What Comes Next?
And How Can You Stay Safe?

Chris, Keith, Kent –

The next 20 years will be unlike anything we've ever seen in the history of the world.

And those who aren't ready for what's coming will definitely look upon it as a catastrophe.

Nobody can talk, with absolute certainties, about what lies ahead in our path.

But we can definitely make some assumptions based on the evidence.

The exponential growth that has occurred with our energy, environmental, and economic systems has reached a point of no return.

It's not about running out of oil.

Or food and water.

It's about not being able to keep up with the demands of society.

And the dangerous economic constraints that will be put on our country and the world.

When these factors are combined with an American and global economy that's already on the verge of a meltdown, it's apparent that, while we may be able to delay the date this pyramid scheme crashes, the only unknowns at this point are when will that massive crash occur?

How severe will the outcome be?

And what is the best course of action for you to take in order to prepare and stay safe.

The first E – energy – is the piece of the pyramid scheme that has the most influence on the severity of the entire situation.

Because when we reach the point where oil can't fall below $150 a barrel...

Or $200 a barrel, say in 2013.

When we hit that mark, it's going to cause a ripple effect that weakens those other two Es tremendously.

Because the bedrock of our society is cheap and easy energy.

When that illusion gives way to the reality that there are no quick fixes, regardless of what politicians like to say...

The aftermath will go way beyond the $10-a-gallon gasoline we'll be paying in the near future.

And if we get caught in some period whether it's 10 years, or 20 years, or longer, where we are stuck between expensive oil and our transition to a mass integration of natural gas and other alternatives, it's going to stop the exponential growth patterns in the environment and economy right in their tracks.

When this pyramid comes crashing down, it will not be smooth.

We soon won't have the easy energy that would allow us to continue to cheaply extract necessary elements from our environment.

Our food and water is going to become infinitely more expensive in the years ahead.

It could get so bad that average folks may be spending 30% – even 40% – of their disposable income on it.

There will be areas of the world that experience increasing hostility around vital resources like water, farmland, and energy.

The fallout out from this will be truly frightening.

When this pyramid scheme goes, when that last card is placed on the top of this house of cards, we'll enter a time where the laws of money no longer apply to individuals.

Where bankruptcies and restructurings involve entire nation-states.

The world we live in right now has 10-20 times the amount of phony derivatives floating around than the entire size of our global GDP.

It's unsustainable and impossible to rectify.

Governments and central banks of the world have spent and borrowed us into oblivion by wasting our tax dollars, hard work, and loyal citizenship.

They've gambled our futures away.

I expect to see the collapse of sovereign debt occur sometime in the 20-teens.

Up to that point I expect to see absolute desperation on the part of the Federal Government, as they continue the aggressive money-printing to accommodate all of the debt we've already built up.

They will punitively tax those who've been responsible with their money.

I believe we could see America enter into a period of devastating inflation where the dollar becomes nearly worthless.

Like an exponential growth curve it'll start off slow...

Maybe 8% by 2015.

But then it'll rapidly speed up hitting 10% annually.

Then 25%...

Then 100%...maybe even 600% a year.

Some parts of the country are already starting to prepare for this.

Right now, there are no fewer than 11 places in the United States at least testing alternatives to the dollar in their local economy on a small scale.

And there's no wonder why.

A new survey shows that it could soon take a $150,000-a-year household income for a family to afford basic living expenses, save some money, and have a little left over for an occasional night out.

It's unbelievable.

That's how weak some experts forecast the U.S. Dollar will soon become in a world economy.

They don't believe that day is far off.

It's just one reason why the dollar will definitely lose reserve status at some point in the future.

Due to these harsh economic conditions, soon our governments may not be able to service the truly needy.

People think entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are obligations the government has to provide, because Americans paid into the system...

Those people are wrong.  And those programs are bankrupt now.

Washington can take a hatchet to them anytime they like.

People can also forget about the FDIC.

That can only cover a fraction of U.S. bank deposits.

It's a false sense of security.

Plus, state pension payments could get suspended.

It happened in Argentina and Greece.

And it may happen in France, Germany, and here.

In an extreme scenario, some areas of the country may not have the revenue to properly fund the police, firemen, and other basic public services.

Now as everything becomes more strained, society may start to unravel to some degree.

Our rates of incarceration in this country are their own exponential growth curve.

One that is rising faster than population growth.

This could get much worse as people have to make some tough choices on how they'll go about surviving in times where basic necessities become nearly unaffordable.

You've got 1.5 million people in this country living on under $2 a day.

You've got 46 million Americans below the poverty line.

I believe our safety nets will become nearly obsolete when the Pyramid Scheme crashes, so you can guarantee crime will rise.

It's not a positive outlook.

People need to avoid falling prey to their own beliefs.

None of these things sound possible.

None of these things sound even remotely probable.

But I believe they are as inevitable as the sun coming up tomorrow.

The question is: When?

And what is the precise sequence of events that could lead to the collapse of the pyramid?

But given everything you've just heard, you have to understand that there are any number of outcomes that could change the severity of this Pyramid Scheme.

However, you have to be aware of what's possible.

And you also have to have hope.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Let me put that in perspective.

In just over the last 100 years, this country has made it through two World Wars, multiple recessions, a Great Depression, a presidential assassination, 9/11 and a long list of other difficult times.

We survived it all, and the Dow still returned 22,000%.

This Pyramid Scheme may be terrifying, but it's not the endgame.

If people want to put their hands over their eyes and think that these issues will solve themselves nice and smoothly, they will be in for a rude awakening.

The Pyramid Scheme will collapse on them, and they won't have any way out.

Dr. Kent Moors:

But if you accept the realities of what's in front of all of us, and plan accordingly, you could come out way ahead.

Even though the days of easy oil have come and gone, there are huge opportunities for oil and energy related investments for Americans.

We are going to broaden our drilling.

We're going to have more pipelines.

And as oil becomes more expensive, there will be more windfall possibilities.

But you also need to step outside your comfort zone into other energy opportunities.

Natural gas is dirt-cheap now.

It won't be as demand for it rises, and its slow mass integration into our society begins to take shape.

So Americans should get into natural gas now.

If you push more and more of your capital into energy opportunities, you may just find yourself quite wealthy even as this Pyramid Scheme collapses.

In fact, I've identified 6 energy plays that could do just that.

Chris Martenson:

When I first discovered this exponential growth trend, I moved well over 50% of my wealth into hard assets like gold and silver.

That turned out to be a very smart move for me over the years.

And I think it's going to pay off even further as gold hits, say, $3,000 an ounce over the coming years.

Or even $10,000 in an extreme scenario.

But I also looked to pay off all of my debt.

Because debt can be a minor annoyance in times of prosperity...

When the times get bad, debt can cripple you.

So while you have time, get out of all the debt you can.

And then move on to diversifying your investment portfolio into heavy commodity plays.

You need to get into food, farmland, water and utilities, plus precious metals like gold and silver.

And certainly diversify your wealth out of U.S. dollars as much as possible.

Keith Fitz-Gerald:

Now here's my favorite opportunity for this Pyramid Scheme crisis.

And it's somewhat contrarian.

I think the stock market could suffer a historic crash when we hit the tough times.

But even if that comes to pass, there will be enormous opportunities in a few select pockets of Wall Street.

You need to target what I call Glocals.

A Glocal is a company most people think of as primarily American, but it's really a powerhouse international entity.

Take McDonald's, a posterchild glocal.

Seventy percent of its business comes from overseas, with a big chunk of it coming from China.

America's bailout darling – GM – sells more cars in China than the rest of the world combined.

Siemens, Intel, Coca Cola, Nike – all of these are headline Glocals, but I'm just hitting the tip of the iceberg there.

In fact, I want to give you the top 3 glocals that have the most upside in the years ahead.

The important thing to understand is that the global shift isn't happening, it's already happened.

Right now 77% of the economic activity on this planet doesn't occur within the United States.

It's happening somewhere else.

We are about to be struck by a very serious crisis that will lead to a tremendous realignment of social, political, and economic capital.

It's going to negatively impact literally billions of people.

But instead of taking a doom and gloom mentality with it, let's look at this crisis as the mother of all opportunities.

You can not only survive the collapse of the Pyramid Scheme, you can come out of it wiser and wealthier than ever before.

The choice is yours.

Taking the Future Into Your Own Hands...

John Daly:

The team has presented their case, and now it's up to you to decide for yourself.

Is our future one dangerous pyramid scheme that's on the verge of collapsing?

If it is, it doesn't mean you have to fall victim to it.

That was the real purpose of today's broadcast.

Now you need to know the steps to take next.

Money Map Press is one of the world's most respected financial publishers.

Reaching over 500,000 daily readers in 35 countries.

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But here's something you'll find really interesting.

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