Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Russia lost to Turkmenistan, a gas pipeline under the Caspian will be laid.

Sergei Rasova

Something happened that should not happen.Russia lost its influence in Turkmenistan, a gas pipeline under the Caspian will be laid.

By and large, but what could I do Berdimuhamedov? Dioxide – the main export component of the republic, its a lot, it should sell.

Russia is not enough that she refused to buy larger volumes of gas, so more and continues to put "sand in the wheels" deliveries of Turkmen gas to European consumers. For the time Turkmenistan reconciled with a similar approach, and patiently waited for the offer, Gazprom in exchange for support from the denial of "Nabucco"? So do not wait, besides threatening statements the Russians that they will not allow construction of gas pipelines on Caspian seabed. That is, in fact, around these issues and turned summit of Caspian littoral states, which last week took place in Baku.

No doubt there were other questions too important and topical, but rather it questions the second plan, but mainly as I was, and remained the question of the legal status of the Caspian Sea and the principles of his section. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of newly independent states with access to the Caspian Sea, the problem was not solved. At a forum in Baku tentatively agreed that experts should agree on the national coastal zone, on the basis of 24-25 miles, the outer limits of which will become the state’s borders. Although the same Turkmenistan insists on a width of 20 miles. Secondly, we must distinguish between the economic zones of responsibility of States. Here too there is no complete unanimity. Previously, when was the Soviet Union, the two countries, respectively, in equal parts divide the Caspian Sea – the USSR and Iran. Now proposed principle: the greater length of coastline, the larger sector of the sea get to the state. In May 2003, Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan have adopted a tripartite agreement to separate about 2 / 3 of the Caspian seabed. Now actually in Kazakhstan 27 percent of the seabed, to Russia – 19 percent of Azerbaijan – 18 percent. Iran, this approach does not suit, and he proposes to divide the Caspian equally by 20 percent between the five countries. What is clear Iran has the smallest length of the coastline, and want, if not more, not less than their neighbors, but it is unacceptable for Turkmenistan or Azerbaijan, or for other Caspian states. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to the summit in Baku said that progress in determining the status of the Caspian Sea there and if the experts will work productively, then a year later in Moscow, a document can be signed.

As a result of this forum have signed an Agreement on Cooperation in the field of security in the Caspian Sea and agreed that the need to give time for sturgeon reproduction. This was the initiative of President Nursultan Nazarbayev for a moratorium on sturgeon fishing, however, until the instrument is not signed, but it will cook.

However, as we have already noted, the central issue of the Caspian – oil, gas, and Turkmenistan, respectively, laying the Trans-Caspian pipeline on the seabed in the direction of Azerbaijan. We have already detailed coverage of all the troubles in the relationship of gas main players in the region (see "Gas intrigue Turkmenistan), and therefore only briefly recall that Turkmenistan actively building a pipeline of the East-West", which will link the north-eastern gas fields in the country with the Caspian region .Then the Turkmen gas would go or on the Caspian gas pipeline through Kazakhstan to Russia, or the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline system in the Russians an alternative Nabucco pipeline. During the recent visit of Dmitry Medvedev to Ashkhabad, according to Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, the outcome of the negotiations was the decision to once again postpone the construction of the Caspian gas pipeline. They say, Europe after the crisis was not recovered, demand for gas is not. Given that "the Caspian Sea region is dependent, then the Turkmens had nothing to do but to face the Trans-Caspian project, through the Caucasus to Turkey (joining the existing Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum), and further to Europe.

President Berdimuhamedov at the summit in Baku, clearly explained that he was "against giving any outstanding issues on the Caspian political overtones" and that "for us is the fundamental issue of building a pipeline under the Caspian Sea." In this case, the head of Turkmenistan does not intend to ask permission to lay the pipeline from all countries of the Caspian "five", and only those parties "across the bottom areas that will build such a pipeline, that is Azerbaijan. Supplemented his boss, Vice-Premier of Turkmenistan in Ashgabat Baymurad Hodzhamuratov Forum "Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan – 2010". According to him, Turkmenistan will be able to deliver to Europe to 40 billion cubic meters of gas. He added that the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea "consistent with the policy of Turkmenistan to diversify the areas of marketing natural gas."In other words, Moscow made it clear that she was not entitled to decide to build or not build "Transcaspian" as pipe will go out of the Russian Caspian Sea.

Thus Berdimuhamedov said Medvedev, who insisted that "the necessary strict balance between the interests of oil production and gas production, as well as environmental protection. Including issues such as the laying of main trans-Caspian pipelines. Clearly, all these questions about the ecology of the evil one, the problem is that Gazprom with its South Stream may remain on the beans.

What will happen next, this is perhaps the most interesting question. It is likely that Russia will insist – to build nothing is impossible, the status of the Caspian Sea are not resolved.Quietly tries to win over the other side of the Caspian states to the accompaniment of an "information war": it is said, will earn "Transcaspian" come the Americans and Europeans will begin to dictate their terms, the regional security will be threatened.

This raises another question, and who will support the Moscow if building the Trans-Caspian pipeline will "in fact" – without agreeing with Moscow or Iran, which strongly opposed. Of course, Azerbaijan’s position in this matter, as the grandfather Lenin – paramount. However, if Azerbaijan will settle disputes with Turkmenistan on offshore Kyapaz, Azeri and Chirag fields, (for example, sign an agreement on joint development of fields that are in the disputed zone), it is unlikely to act on the side of the Russians.Unprofitable, and the West in Azerbaijan good relations.

Hopes for Iran, too, especially not to, after Russia refused to supply missile systems S-300 relationship soured, and the second is already supplying its gas Turkmenistan Islamic republic. Why, for example, does not reduce the price of gas in return for loyalty? In addition, Iran is a rogue nation and a special weight in international politics has not, and the set of enemies along the perimeter of its borders will not.

Kazakhstan has traditionally hide "head in the sand and take a stand – neutrality. He had no hands with anyone quarrel with either the West or with Russia or with Turkmenistan.And the future is possible and its gas to Nabucco to pump if the Turkmens will succeed.

Who loses? Sure, only Russia. About the transit of Central Asian gas to the West will be forgotten, we observe because of their own short-sighted policy, because of the inability to negotiate and compromise. Loss than image hundreds of billions of dollars, and the question arises – how then will need Russia’s South Stream project. Would not that from him would have to give. Be realistic, after Moscow has reduced the purchase of up to 10-12 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas, Ashgabat leverage to influence it had not left …

Today Turkmenistan is increasing gas supplies to China, puts on a gas pipeline in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) is actively working with Iran. In late November or early December, the Caspian region is planning to visit European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, to lobby for the Nabucco project, so it will continue to follow all the ups and downs of the Caspian gas detective.

Source:: Ca-News

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