Monday, May 16, 2011

Strauss-Kahn, IMF, and Europe's decline...

Sarkozy, qui est le président le plus bavard et le plus inculte de toute l’histoire de la Cinquième République, ne s’en tirera pas comme ça. Je dois avouer que ses récentes gesticulations, d’abord en Libye, où il fut grotesque, puis à l’ONU (concernant le statut des palestiniens), où il a extrait un énième gros lapin de son petit chapeau, dans le seul but de se faire passer, lui, pour le génial Français qui, après avoir sauvé la Libye, allait sauver le Proche Orient, je dois avouer que toutes ces gesticulations accompagnées de haussements d’épaules et de rictus nerveux, me sont devenus insupportables.

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Car, au-delà de l’aspect purement gesticulatoire, les initiatives de Sarkozy – sur le plan international – deviennent un véritable fléau, pour tout le monde, notamment pour le Liban, les USA, l’Allemagne, la Chine, la Russie et beaucoup d'autres.... Si Sarkozy s’imagine sérieusement, que son art du baratin superflu, aura autant d’effet sur le plan mondial, que sur le plan français, alors il se trompe lourdement. Car à Washington, Berlin, Moscou et Pékin, l’on commence à en avoir par-dessus la tête, du petit illusionniste, sérieusement atteint, au niveau du bocal, atteint par le virus – incurable et sans vaccin efficace à ce jour – de la folie des grandeurs. Sarkozy n’est pas De Gaulle. Sarkozy n’est pas non plus Louis de Funès. Il n’est donc ni grand, ni drôle....


Strauss-Kahn, IMF, Sarkozy.....and Europe's decline...
By Chan Akya


http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/146235/20110516/dominique-strauss-kahn-undergoing-tests-over-sex-assault-charges.htm

There must be something in the water across Europe as the continent appears to be re-enacting its 2,500-year history on multiple fronts, comfortably compressed for the modern television audience into just a few months.

Even as the Greeks are busy dismantling the remnants of their modern civilization through the mechanism of massive irresponsibility at all levels of society, the Romans are busy bringing in the memories of Caligula and Nero through the offices of their political leaders. The Spanish are back to the fast-forward mode of destroying their economy through the instrument of debasing their monetary system.

Alongside, the French appear to be attempting a curious mix of Richelieu and Napoleon on their neighbors, while the Germans fret between the models of Bismarck and a potential emergence of the Weimar Republic that could yet unleash a new Hitler. The minor republics across the periphery all fret about the sheer complexity of the political system that runs them today.

Those staying out of the euro, like the British and the Swiss, have apparently gone back to dreaming of a time when they didn't have to deal with noisy neighbors across the continent.

The arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK), managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) late on Saturday in New York, to be subsequently charged with attempted rape and unlawful imprisonment, stands out at first like yet another sordid story comparable with those that have involved senior political figures around the world.

A friend joked that Monsieur Strauss-Kahn was attempting to rehearse for his role as president of France (before the scandal it was widely expected in France that he would trump the incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy in next year's elections) so as to secure adequate respect from compatriots like the over-sexed Silvio Berlusconi of Italy and the apparently asexual Angela Merkel of Germany.

It is possible that DSK was set up by the French establishment - economist Nouriel Roubini has hinted as much in his Twitter posts - although the key problem with that theory is also that DSK would be considered as much part of the establishment as Sarkozy. In any event, a basic analysis of the news points to a simple explanation; in all fairness that is not the point of this article.

The ugly sisters
Many moons ago, I wrote an article tongue in cheek "A good use for the IMF - bail out America" (Asia Times Online, March 17, 2007), whose proposal has since actually become official policy at least for IMF actions in regards to Europe, supposedly the superior economy to America at the time I wrote the article.

From their inception in the post-World War II period, the IMF and the World Bank were designed as tools of Western intervention in emerging markets that could be padded as neutral, multilateral efforts rather than overtly of the capitalist powers in the charged environment of the Cold War.

Part of that arrangement was to ensure that the heads of the World Bank would always be from the United States while the IMF would be led by the Europeans, so that pesky questions about policy could always be avoided: hence their moniker in the minds of independent economists, as the "ugly sisters".

For those reasons alone, the IMF and World Bank indulged in orthodox lending practices that could keep economies in straitjackets while the interests of creditors (denominated in US dollars) were paramount. They were talking shops that encouraged the saving nations across Asia and the Middle East to invest their hard-earned revenues in "hard" currencies while diminishing the role and importance of the Asian and Middle East local bond markets and currencies.

Within the organizations, the ugly sisters operate as any organization with exclusive powers but no real accountability would be expected to - in other words, with utter irresponsibility. It is not a coincidence in my mind that people heading these organizations appear to come out of them with what looks like psychological trauma. We have already seen in 2007 a scandal involving then World Bank president Paul Wolfowitz and a companion who worked at the bank.

The DSK case appears to show a similar lack of judgement, preceded as it was by a very similar case involving an affair with a married woman inside the IMF. Interestingly, the ugly sisters appear to be equal opportunity offenders - in the sense that Wolfowitz was widely recognized as a neo-conservative, while DSK was the archetypal French socialist.

My pet theory is that the people working in these places have an "achievement deficit" - in the sense that any work they do cannot be visibly attributed to anything useful in the outside world. For a range of successful men (sexual offenders at these agencies seem to be all men) perhaps there just wasn't the required gravitas that comes with a job well done. Hence the minds wander to more base pursuits. A theory for sure, but also a plausible one.

Any number of economists trained by the ugly sisters went on to important roles across emerging nations - Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. Go ahead and read the bio section of any number of central bankers and finance ministry professionals around the world and the magic words "xyz previously worked as a policy director/economist/credit officer/research assistant (pick your spot) at the IMF/WB (pick one or both)". This is exactly the kind of mind-control that led Asian central bankers down the path of what I called "The New Imperialism", ie to over-invest their reserves in the debt issued by governments across the US and Europe as a measure of safety.

The other over-arching aspect of the IMF is to be seen as a credible partner to governments across the world. From that need arises the seeming contradiction in its reports - as recently highlighted in my article "With friends like these..." (Asia Times Online, April 22, 2011). where the bullish tone in its executive summary stands in stark contrast to the more guarded tone of the actual report.

Declining Europe
When he was detained by police, DSK was apparently aboard a plane destined for Europe, specifically to secure an agreement with key European leaders like Merkel ahead of a planned announcement of new deal with Greece over the extension and fresh facilities for the country's debt, even as it failed to meet the admittedly loose targets on fiscal consolidation set by the IMF.

Double-speak isn't anything new at the IMF, so that bit of accounting skullduggery on Greece wasn't newsworthy by itself. What was newsworthy was the likely extension of the Greek aid program ad infinitum (in other words a second bailout), as long as allegations of an outright default could be avoided, as that would be inconvenient for the IMF and the European Union to explain properly after throwing a number of billions of euros at the problem.

Then there was the question of the 78 billion euros (US$110 billion) or so that had to be agreed for Portugal as a bailout. Also on the agenda of Strauss-Kahn was an agreement on the appropriate statements that politicians would make on with (or more pertinently, against) the increasingly shrill statements coming out of the European Central Bank that appeared to espouse a course of action that hadn't been quite antagonistic to the debtor-friendly policies that politicians appeared to endorse.

Reluctant participants included Finland (which recently voted against any new bailouts) and the United Kingdom (which has its own debt problems and has recently decided against helping any European country that requests a second bailout).

Historians have debated long and hard about the actual event that caused or at the very least showcased the decline of the Roman civilization; indeed more recently much confusion and arguments persist on the events that actually caused World War I.

In my view though, the casus belli for the present day decline of Europe would be the mere fact that a decrepit borrower (Greece) threatened to leave the common currency and was hastily stopped by its lenders across the continent. If that doesn't show the rot at the heart of Europe, what else does?

In that wider context, the detention of the IMF chief at the weekend is almost a postscript for everyone except the New York hotel chamber maid who has leveled accusations against him.



Sunday, May 15, 2011

ExxonMobil CEO Says Oil Price Should Be $60 To $70 A Barrel



ExxonMobil CEO Says Oil Price Should Be $60 To $70 A Barrel

Rex Tillerson, the boss of ExxonMobil admitted last week that the price of oil–based purely on supply and demand- should be in the $60 to $70 a barrel range. The reason it’s above $100 a barrel, Tillerson explained, is due to the oil majors using futures contracts to lock in current high prices, and speculation that is engineered by the high-frequency trading of quantitative hedge funds.

That was just one of the stunning revelations made during the Senate hearing on tax subsidies to the oil industry– which featured the 6 most powerful CEOsBP, Shell, Chevron, Conoco-Phillips and Exxon-Mobil– all sitting like ducks in a row giving the stiff-arm to pressing unfriendly inquiries from a host of Democratic Senators.

The formal showdown between Big Oil and Big Politics was enormously revealing theater about just how selfish and narrow-minded cash-rich industry can be when called upon to do their patriotic duty in balancing the budget. Ouch!!!

Here are some other juicy disclosures from the hearing:

–The average cost of producing 1 barrel of oil was $11; the average price of the oil in the marketplace–$72– some 6.5 times the cost of getting the oil out of the ground.

–The profits for the big 6 oil companies was $36 billion in the year’s first quarter. A large part of the $36 billion was used to buyback shares or pay dividends to shareholders.

–These giant US companies have only 1.4% of global oil reserves; the national companies of OPEC have 68% of the reserves. Therefore, argue the CEOs best not to take away tax advantages, i.e. what the Senators call “subsidies.”

– If those nasty Senators take away the tax advantages, exploration for oil in the US will dry up– and move abroad where the tax advantages are splendid. This is called waving the red flag- and threatening to put the nation’s oil deficit in even more dollar-bashing trouble.

–If Obama doesn’t loosen restrictions on drilling in Alaska and offshore US– we will become even more horribly dependent on importing foreign oil.

–There is NO energy plan for the US– and warns Sen. Max Baucus of Montana- “we will require the good faith on everyone’s part– which is going to be enormously difficult.” This is an understatement when one sees the way the oil executives and the Senators agree on almost nothing. No CEO would admit the tax advantages were subsidies.

–The deduction for intangible drilling expenses was given to the oil industry in 1960 when a barrel was worth about $15-17. So, why do they need this favor when oil is $100 a barrel? Good bloody question , I thought. The oil execs looked horrified and warned that all exploration in the US would cease and desist.

Well, here we have the truth from the "horse's mouth." You don't have to believe ignorant old me. "$60 to $70 a barrel range." Lenzner continues by stating that, broadly speaking, the rest of the price is created by the "market forces" that I keep talking about.

I find it difficult to believe that the casino-like process of playing with the possibility of extracting profits from the manipulation of futures contributes to the production of petroleum.

This "game" contributes to the bank accounts of the players, but what does it do to the rest of us?

If the answer is nothing, then the "crap shoot" in New York and other places should be dealt with, probable through international treaties of regulation.

http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2011/05/14/exxon-mobil-ceo-says-oil-price-should-be-60-70-a-barrel/

There are actually several different crude oil markets because of how oil is refined. Heavy crudes (high wax content, high API viscosity, high density) cannot be refined efficiently by refineries geared to refine light crudes and vice versa. A similar situation exists with “sweet” and “sour” crudes. Light, sweet crudes are cheaper to pump, transport, and distill and produce more gasoline per barrel than other types of crudes so it generally goes for more dollars per barrel than others. However, This distinction has a important impact on the balance of supply and demand because there is imbalance between production and refining capacity. Refineries designed to distill sour crudes cannot distill sweet and vice versa. The same is true for light vs. heavy crudes as well. The problem is that 75% of the world’s crude is sour but something like 40% of the world’s refineries are geared to sweet crude.

Further, world production of sweet light crudes has either peaked is close to peaking, which means the imbalance between production capacity and refining capacity will increase. The recent shut down in Libya’s production of sweet light crude has further thrown off the supply side of the equation. Other producers of sweet and light crudes like Nigeria simply cannot produce any more. While the Saudi’s production can increase to fill the gap, they have only sour and heavy crudes, which does nothing for the 40% of refineries geared toward sweet light. The remaining refineries geared toward heavier sour crudes are already operating near capacity. Increasing production of heavy, sour crudes cannot translate into more gasoline or fuel oil delivered to customers.

World production of sweet crudes has peaked and increasing prices will not impact production.

http://www.iwatchnews.org/2011/05/12/4559/some-energy-ceos-among-highest-paid-us-corporate-bosses


Speculators aren't particularly wedded to the long side of markets; they're equally happy to sell short if that's where the path of least resistance seems to lie. Let's not forget speculators were also blamed for trashing the shares of various financial institutions only a few years ago.

Sure, when there's too much money playing the momentum game they increase volatility, exaggerating both upmoves and downmoves. Still, only those few light-footed enough to get out of their positions in time can succeed at this particular game longer term. Most will eventually be chewed up by the fluctuations.

The real distorting factor isn't so much speculators as investors. Commodities are now widely viewed as an asset class and institutional (as well as other private) money has poured in over recent years with the total invested at the end of 2010 estimated at $376 billion. In 2009/2010 alone, net inflows to the sector were estimated at $134 billion.

There's no way that isn't going to have an impact on price. Commodity markets aren't geared for this kind of activity; they're not used to dealing with large long-term inventory accumulators (whether direct or via derivatives). There was an early run at this back in the late 70s but it was cut short by the subsequent commodity crash.

In part, it's just another reflection of the monetary/credit madness that's affecting everything (note the late 1970s were similarly confused and volatile, albeit at much lesser absolute and relative levels). In part too, the widespread readiness to buy the commodity story reflects deep-seated concerns about resources more generally: peak oil of course, population pressures, climate change, the "shortage" of agricultural land and potential losses of productivity, and so on. Maybe some are exaggerated, maybe some are just plain wrong, but the fact is they've entered into people's consciousness and necessarily affect all their actions.

What to do about it? Tough question: one thing I'm pretty sure of is that trying to squelch particular manifestations is a waste of time. The distortions are just going to pop out somewhere else.

In time (and probably not all that much time) we'll see the flip side of these soaring prices, much as we did in late 2008/2009. And, along the way, quite a bit of this newly enthusiastic investment money will retreat to the sidelines, licking its wounds. Perhaps even vowing "never again".

Then too, in the much bigger picture the longer exaggerated prices stay around the greater the impact will be on creating new supply and developing substitutes.




Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Russia redrawing Europe energy map


It is little wonder that the forces of empire have settled upon Romania as the ultimate testing ground for US Geostrategic plans. The anti-missile system, which will ultimately target Russia, is to be located there. Romania has met all IMF conditions, with the sell of part of its natural energy assets to Western bidders. Potential deals with Turkmenistan, to supply gas to the temporarily postponed Nabucco, remain up in the air, while South Stream plans completely bypass Romania....

If Russia has its way, then Poland, Romania and Ukraine will have been excised from its energy circulatory system, opening new inviolable pathways to service Europe, solving Russia's supply problems, as well as Europe's but not in the way the West envisioned. Will the West allow this definite Russian victory to stand, on the ghost of Nabucco? Keep in mind that Nabucco has so far, merely been postponed to wait for Azeri gas in 2017. Nothing is resolved yet...

Russia redrawing Europe energy map....
By M K Bhadrakumar

Things couldn't have been better for Russia's energy giant Gazprom even before news came in over the weekend that curtains could be coming down on one of the keenest battles of the Caspian great game, and Moscow is on a winning streak.

Gazprom increased its gas supplies to Europe in April by over 21% on the same month last year. In 2011, Gazprom's overall export revenue is estimated to be a whopping US$72.4 billion. In anticipation of increased supplies to Europe, the Russian company has begun plans to nearly double its underground storage capacities for gas by 2015 to almost 4.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) and by next year to 6.5 bcm.

Gazprom operates gas storage facilities in Austria and lease

facilities in Britain, France and Germany. This work is in anticipation of the vastly increased flow of Russian gas through the new pipeline systems known as South Stream and North Stream, which are becoming operational in the very near future.

The increased storage facilities in Austria will cater to the markets in Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, Germany and Italy. A new storage, Katrina, which Gazprom is building as a joint venture with VNG in Germany, will support gas exports to Western European hubs. Gazprom built another joint venture storage facility with Serbia that will support gas exports to Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Hungary. Feasibility studies are being conducted on similar joint storage projects in the Czech Republic, France, Romania, Belgium, Britain, Slovakia, Turkey and Greece.

With this, the "gas map" of Europe, which was largely drawn in the Soviet era, is poised to undergo a phenomenal change. The great consolidation of Russia's status as the pre-eminent energy supplier - Russia today supplies over 41% of Europe's gas needs - is certain to transform east-west relations in the medium and long term and will figure as a key factor in the United States' trans-Atlanticism.

Nabucco on backburner
When good news come, it comes in battalions. The latest heartening news for Gazprom is that the Nabucco natural gas pipeline, the pet project of the United States' Caspian energy diplomacy that aims at reducing Europe's energy dependence on Russia, has suffered a considerable, and potentially lethal, setback.

Reinhard Mitschek, managing director of Nabucco Gas Pipeline International, revealed that the project has been pushed back until 2017 - three years later than originally planned. The construction work stands postponed by one year at least to 2013. He left things delightfully vague, saying gas would flow through the pipeline "as soon as there are firm indications that gas supply commitments are in place".

Nabucco was conceived to funnel gas 3,900 kilometers from Turkey to Austria and was designed to carry 31 bcm of natural gas a year from the Middle East and the Caspian region to markets in Europe. Bypassing Russia, the pipeline would run through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to a hub just outside Vienna for onward distribution all across the European Union countries. The Nabucco consortium consists of the energy companies RWE of Germany; OMV of Austria; MOL of Hungary; Botas of Turkey; Bulgaria Energy Holding of Bulgaria; and Transgaz of Romania.

The postponement of the project will almost certainly drive up its cost. European Union Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger warns that costs could rise as high as $21.4 billion, up from an earlier estimate at about $11.2 billion. BP makes similar estimates of cost escalation. Indeed, ballooning costs put a big question mark on the project's economic viability.

The main hitch, however, lies in the lack of availability of gas to feed the pipeline. The surplus capacity of Turkmenistan to feed Nabucco remains problematic, as Ashgabat cannot pursue independent energy policies that undercut Russian interests. Iran would be an ideal source to feed Nabucco, but US-Iran standoff precludes the possibility. Thus, Nabucco's best hope lies in gas supplies from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 field, which is expected to come on-stream in 2017.

The one-trillion-cubic-meter Azeri gas field is being developed by a consortium led by BP and Norwegian national oil company Statoil. The first phase of production, Shah Deniz I, started up in 2006 and produces a maximum of 8.6 bcm of gas annually; the second phase is expected to produce 16 bcm of gas annually when it becomes operational in 2017.

However, two other rival claimants for the Azeri gas have appeared: Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy (ITGI) and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Turkey also hopes to buy Shah Deniz II gas directly. Last week, Turkey signed an agreement with Azerbaijan to buy six billion cubic meters of gas from the second phase of the Shah Deniz gas field in 2017.

To be sure, the setback for Nabucco works as Russia's gain. Nabucco versus South Stream (see map
here) has been one of the most keenly fought sagas of the Caspian great game - perhaps, next only to the Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline which the Bill Clinton administration rammed through despite Russian opposition. Turkey worked solidly with the US at that time but now Ankara and Moscow are close collaborators in the field of energy.

Gazprom would be in a celebratory mood, as in comparison with Nabucco, South Stream project is cruising merrily. The 900-kilometer South Stream gas pipeline can carry 63 bcm of gas to central and southern Europe via the Black Sea. The project is expected to be completed by end-2015.

South Stream and North Stream (also known as Nord Stream, see map
here) are Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's trophies, which will stand out as his enduring legacy to the surge of the Russian economy and Russia's return to the world stage. He pushed the negotiations with the European partners almost single-handedly. The defining moment for South Stream came in March when Wintershall, the energy subsidiary of the German chemicals giant BASF, agreed to join the project. BASF will hold a 15% share in South Stream.

At the signing ceremony in Moscow, Putin said, "The move indicates stability and is crucial for the entire energy market." He welcomed Germany's support for the market, "including the position of Chancellor Angela Merkel". Russia's "German connection" is almost entirely the personal handiwork of Putin's untiring diplomacy. Wintershall also holds a 15.5% stake in North Stream, which connects Russia with an undersea pipeline through the Baltics with Germany, and E.ON Ruhrgas AG is Gazprom's partner in constructing North Stream.

Russia can now be expected to go for the kill and bury Nabucco once and for all by negotiating more contracts for additional gas supplies to Europe over the next two years. South Stream and North Stream are poised to redraw the energy equations between Russia and the European countries.

US rallies "New Europeans"
South Stream bypasses Ukraine while North Stream, is expected to be launched in October, cuts out Poland as a transit country. In geopolitical terms, Russia can now negotiate with Ukraine and Poland from a position of strength as its dependence on these two temperamental transit countries for its highly strategic energy exports to Europe stands diminished.

Meanwhile, South Stream brings Russia back as a player across the board in the Balkans (a role that the US denied Russia by breaking up the former Yugoslavia). Europe now faces an uphill task to execute its plans to cut back on its gas purchases from Russia. North Stream undoubtedly uplifts the overall Russian-German strategic ties to a qualitatively new level of partnership.

South Stream and North Stream have trivialized the United States' policy to fuel the latent feelings of antipathy among the Central European countries toward Russia, a policy that dates back to the late 1990s. President Barack Obama is expected to visit Warsaw later this month. The London Telegraph reported on Tuesday that Obama will confirm the deployment of F-16 aircraft in Poland as a mark of direct US guarantee in addition to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for the country's defense.

In Warsaw, Obama is expected to have a summit meeting with the presidents of the Central European states. Evidently, the US is cranking up the Central European vector - famously called the "New Europeans" by George W Bush's defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld - against the backdrop of Russia's energy surge in Europe.

In a major policy speech at Bratislava in March, the US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs Philip Gordon said the Central Europe region as a bloc "plays a crucial role as a partner of the United Sates in promoting democracy and stability in Europe, but its contributions run far beyond Europe's borders... efforts at cooperation with Russia will in no way limit the US or NATO's capacity to deploy missile defense or other collective defense capabilities... none of the progress we have made in our so-called bilateral reset with Russia comes at the expense of any ally... we work very closely with Europe on every major issue, both internationally and within Europe... [and] Central Europe plays a crucial role in advancing this agenda."

Clearly, the US realizes that energy is the lever with which Russia is undermining its strategy. So, it also has a few cards up its sleeves. It is gearing up liquefied natural gas terminals to export US natural gas to higher-paying markets overseas by 2015, and Europe is a major destination. The fact of the matter is that the US is becoming self-sufficient in gas. The Financial Times carried a sensational report last Friday about a potential shift in the politics of energy thanks to Europe's potential shale gas bonanza, which would have the potential to reshape the continent's supply, reducing its dependency on Russia and the Middle East.

However, these are rushed ideas necessitated by the unavoidable prospect of Europe's heavy dependence on Russian energy supplies for the foreseeable future. Many challenges need to be addressed before commercial production from unconventional sources such as shale gas could become a reality in the European market.

The FT report says, "Shale gas is trapped in rocks thousands of feet underground. It is released by fracturing rocks using high-pressured water in a process known as 'hydraulic fracking'. Fluids and other components such as sand are injected into a well bore under high pressure to force the release of gas from rock formations. One of the biggest environmental concerns is the impact of such fracturing techniques on the water table."

Compared with the US, Europe lacks any detailed and reliable geological study, making it difficult to estimate the potential for unconventional gas.

From all perspectives, what emerges is that Nabucco's promoters are stoically adapting themselves to the realities of an increasingly volatile global energy marketplace, shaken up by multiple factors such as the prospect of shale gas production, the upheaval in the Middle East and of course the killer tsunami in Japan that puts question marks on nuclear power. And the advantage goes to the Russian bird. The Europeans cannot but appreciate that it is better to keep it than hanker for two American birds in the bush.



Nabucco pipeline delayed again...


It is little wonder that the forces of empire have settled upon Romania as the ultimate testing ground for US Geostrategic plans. The anti-missile system, which will ultimately target Russia, is to be located there. Romania has met all IMF conditions, with the sell of part of its natural energy assets to Western bidders. Potential deals with Turkmenistan, to supply gas to the temporarily postponed Nabucco, remain up in the air, while South Stream plans completely bypass Romania....

If Russia has its way, then Poland, Romania and Ukraine will have been excised from its energy circulatory system, opening new inviolable pathways to service Europe, solving Russia's supply problems, as well as Europe's but not in the way the West envisioned. Will the West allow this definite Russian victory to stand, on the ghost of Nabucco? Keep in mind that Nabucco has so far, merely been postponed to wait for Azeri gas in 2017. Nothing is resolved yet....

Nabucco pipeline delayed again...
By Robert M Cutler

MONTREAL - A lack of supply contracts has led to another delay in the construction plans for the Nabucco pipeline, the European Union-sponsored project that is designed to take natural gas from the Caspian Sea basin through the South Caucasus and Turkey into southeastern Europe for onward transmission to the rest of the continent. While skeptics of the project are highlighting this development as another obstacle, it should have been expected.

It was thought that construction would begin in 2012 on the basis of supply contracts concluded late last year or, after postponement, in the first half of this year. A few months ago it was announced that these negotiations would continue into autumn or winter, so the announcement that construction will not begin until 2013 is not really a surprise.

The new announcement gives rise, however, to increased publicity

about the cost of the Nabucco project, which was estimated at 7.9 billion euros (US$11.4 billion) on the basis of a 2005 feasibility study. Current estimates that have leaked into the press range from 12 billion to 15 billion euros - or $21.6 billion, almost double the 2005 figure. Nabucco's managing director, Reinhard Mitschek, has called the higher figures "speculative".

Mitschek emphasizes that plans to source gas from Iraq and Turkmenistan as well as Azerbaijan in the first phase will not necessarily boost the construction price. A Nabucco consortium spokesman confirmed that numbers from 2005 are under review but that current press rumors are "not accurate". New authoritative figures will be released in the future, he said.

In September 2010, the Nabucco consortium signed a mandate letter with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank and the International Finance Corporation (an arm of the World Bank) to launch negotiations for securing 4 billion euros in financing, an amount that may now be increased.

As planned in the beginning, the participating companies intend to raise the remainder from the national governments whose citizens would benefit from the enhanced energy security provided by Nabucco, from private sources, and from all-European sources such as the European Investment Bank and various EU-related institutions.

The new figures will depend also upon the Nabucco consortium's negotiations with the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijani Republic (SOCAR) for 10 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y) from the Phase Two development of the Shah Deniz offshore field. However, just last month SOCAR signed an agreement with the Greek national gas company DEPA for gas to flow directly from Azerbaijan to Greece, as the Turkish firm Botas prepares to transfer its own agreement with DEPA to SOCAR.

This would open the way for the British firm BP (one of the sources of press leaks about increased Nabucco costs) to evacuate 10 bcm/y of gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz Two deposit by building another string of the South Caucasus Pipeline (running from Baku through Georgia into Turkey). BP has in mind to transit this gas to southern Italy through Turkey and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline.

That development follows the European Union's coaxing to open the Southern Gas Corridor via a combination of the Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline. The Interconnector Turkey-Greece of the former already connects the Greek and Turkish gas networks, and it entered into service three years ago.

The latter would run from near Thessaloniki in northern Greece, across Albania and under the Adriatic Sea, reaching Italy near the heel of the country's geographic "boot" at Brindisi. The Norwegian firm StatoilHydro, which owns 25.5% of the consortium developing Shah Deniz has a strong interest in favor of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, of which it also owns 42.5%.

The Nabucco delay also creates problems for the White Stream project to build an gas pipeline under the Black Sea from the Georgian to the Romanian coast, unless Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan separately come to a quicker meeting of minds concerning trans-Caspian sourcing of gas for Europe. President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in Ashgabat has one eye on the west and another on the south for decreasing his own country's dependence on Chinese gas imports.

Thus earlier this month, the four-way talks concluded among the energy ministers of the countries looking to participate in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project. These negotiations follow upon a framework agreement signed at the head-of-state level in December 2010. Facilitated by the Asian Development Bank, which is helping to realize the project, the current round focused on fixing the price of Turkmenistan's gas to India.

According to the Indian newspaper Economic Times, Ashgabat has asked a price of $505-$525 per thousand cubic meters (tcm); New Delhi's offer did not exceed $460/tcm. The issue from the Indian point of view is that the Turkmenistani offer would make TAPI gas more expensive than the liquefied natural gas that India already imports. There is no reason for Indian to invest in building TAPI if the gas will not have a competitive price.

Even if the Nabucco project succeeds and Turkmenistan's gas eventually reaches Europe through it in significant quantities, the country still has enormous resources that it will wish to export. Indeed, it is planned in Ashgabat that the Nabucco and TAPI pipelines are fed by different gas fields.

Russia, once Turkmenistan's biggest customer to the point of controlling Ashgabat's sales abroad, now imports only about 10 bcm/y, and Iran imports even less than that. Consequently, Turkmenistan needs Nabucco or TAPI, or preferably both, because otherwise it would become as dependent upon China as it was dependent upon Russia up until just a few years ago, even with Nabucco in the mix.


Forbes predicts the U.S. will return to the gold standard in 5 years.



A return to the gold standard by the United States within the next five years now seems likely, because that move would help the nation solve a variety of economic, fiscal, and monetary ills, Steve Forbes predicted during an exclusive interview this week with HUMAN EVENTS.

“What seems astonishing today could become conventional wisdom in a short period of time,” Forbes said.

Such a move would help to stabilize the value of the dollar, restore confidence among foreign investors in U.S. government bonds, and discourage reckless federal spending, the media mogul and former presidential candidate said. The United States used gold as the basis for valuing the U.S. dollar successfully for roughly 180 years before President Richard Nixon embarked upon an experiment to end the practice in the 1970s that has contributed to a number of woes that the country is suffering from now, Forbes added.

If the gold standard had been in place in recent years, the value of the U.S. dollar would not have weakened as it has and excessive federal spending would have been curbed, Forbes told HUMAN EVENTS. The constantly changing value of the U.S. dollar leads to marketplace uncertainty and consequently spurs speculation in commodity investing as a hedge against inflation.

The only probable 2012 U.S. presidential candidate who has championed a return to the gold standard so far is Rep. Ron Paul (R.-Tex.). But the idea “makes too much sense” not to gain popularity as the U.S. economy struggles to create jobs, recover from a housing bubble induced by the Federal Reserve’s easy-money policies, stop rising gasoline prices, and restore fiscal responsibility to U.S. government’s budget, Forbes insisted.

With a stable currency, it is “much harder” for governments to borrow excessively, Forbes said. Without lax Federal Reserve System monetary policies that led to the printing of too much money, the housing bubble would not have been nearly as severe, he added.

“When it comes to exchange rates and monetary policy, people often don’t grasp” what is at stake for the economy, Forbes said. By restoring the gold standard, the United States would shift away from “less responsible policies” and toward a stronger dollar and a stronger America, he said. “If the dollar was as good as gold, other countries would want to buy it.”

An encouraging sign for Forbes is that key lawmakers besides Rep. Paul are recognizing that the Fed is straying well beyond its intended role of promoting stable prices and full employment with its monetary policies.

Forbes cited Rep. Paul Ryan (R.-Wis.), who, he believes, understands monetary policy better than most lawmakers and has shown a willingness to ask tough but necessary questions. For example, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Shalom Bernanke appeared before the House Budget Committee in February, Ryan, who chairs the panel, asked Ben Shalom Bernanke bluntly how many jobs the Fed’s quantitative-easing program had helped to create.

Politicians need to “get over” the notion that the Fed can guide the economy with monetary policy. The Fed is like a “bull in a China shop," Forbes said. “It can’t help but knock things down.”

“People know that something is wrong with the dollar and with the utterly corrupt Washington DC and the Criminal US ZOG," Forbes concluded. "You cannot trash your money without repercussions.”



Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Nabucco partner responds to BP doubts over proposed pipeline


A German Nabucco partner on Tuesday rejected a BP assertion that there is not enough Caspian gas to support the planned West-running pipeline.

May, 2011 - The Nabucco pipeline consortium is not facing a shortage of natural gas supplies and does not intend to downsize, a partner said Tuesday in response to doubts of the project’s viability expressed by BP analysts.

An executive of German natural gas and power distributor RWE said Nabucco, which is projected to go onstream in 2017 has more potential gas supplies than it can handle.

"We're talking about an excess of 80 billion cubic meters per year from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iraq," the likely initial suppliers of the pipeline, RWE’s business development chief Jeremy Ellis told the Dow Jones news agency.

The pipeline is being designed to pump up to 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually from the Caspian region and Middle East across Turkey and into Europe.

"Egypt has also recently expressed publicly an interest to participate," he added.

Last month, BP official Iain Conn said that British oil companies prefer smaller capacity pipelines than Nabucco because the Caspian region does not have enough natural gas to provide Europe’s needs.

"The question raised by BP that there isn't enough gas to fill a pipeline the size of Nabucco is fundamentally wrong," Ellis said

He noted that the consortium is negotiating with potential suppliers Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iraq.

Securing gas is not the challenge so much as coordinating the timing of gas supply from producer countries, Ellis said.

The RWE executive said Nabucco’s first gas will be supplied in 2017 from the offshore Azeri gas field Shah Deniz II, led by BP and Statoil.

Shah Deniz II is only expected to produce 10 bcm of gas per year and that two other pipelines are competing for its output, the news agency noted.

Ellis told the news agency that Turkmenistan and Iraq are “working hard toward a timetable to supply gas between 2017 and 2020.”

But industry expert Jennifer Coolidge has noted that Turkmenistan and Iraq are unlikely to provide large-scale supplies in the near future.

Turkmenistan, which has the world’s fourth largest reserves of natural gas, currently lacks the export infrastructure and “the ability to produce the incremental gas needed to supply Europe,” the news agency reported Coolidge, executive director CMX Caspian and Gulf Consultants, as saying.

Iraq’s gas production is taking second place to its focus on re-electrifying the country, she added.

Ellis said that the consortium has offered to stretch the Nabucco pipeline to Azerbaijan’s capital Baku.

This would give Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan the added bonus of developing their upstream gas industries and provide the two with more choices in consumers for Caspian gas, the RWE executive said....


Sunday, May 1, 2011

US and China on collision course for trade war?


US and China on collision course for trade war?


'The problems Americans are seeing with their economy are only going to get worse as China rises,'

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/66016/20100927/us-china-yuan-dollar-trade-deficit-redendunt-valuation-trade-war-wen-us-congress-bill-duty-trade-dis.htm

Nick Carey and James B. Kelleher

China's rise as a manufacturing power has benefited American factory owners in at least one way. The Middle Kingdom's insatiable appetite for second-hand machinery means that small U.S. businesses can make a quick buck by selling old equipment there.

For some American manufacturers, however, the idea of shipping even used stuff with no book value to their chief overseas rival is anathema.

Many of the machines at Bob Chesebro's factory in this Wisconsin city on the shores of Lake Michigan do something seemingly mundane: They sew the toes of the socks he makes closed.

In China that is still often done by hand — a labor-intensive task that other developing countries will eventually do more cheaply as Chinese wages rise.

Chesebro, chief executive and third-generation owner of Wigwam Mills Inc, one of America's few remaining sock makers, refuses to surrender his edge. His equipment ends its days as scrap metal in a dumpster behind his plant.

"We have taken the view that if we sell these machines we're just going to put them in the hands of people who will compete against us," he said.

In several ways, Wigwam defies the conventional wisdom of today's global market.

It has managed to succeed making a relatively high-volume, low-cost commodity product, employing hundreds of workers right here in the United States. It has done so by boosting its productivity and developing niche products like hiking and medical socks in-house.

Given the savage nature of the competition you might expect Chesebro to vent mainly against Chinese-style capitalism.

But like dozens of manufacturers and others across America interviewed for this story, his anger isn't directed at China, which he and others say is doing what it deems as necessary to boost its own people's prosperity.

Instead, their ire is aimed at the U.S. government and American multinationals for not stepping up to the plate and defending long-term U.S. interests.

"I don't blame the Chinese, they're just pursuing their national interest," said Patrick Mulloy, a member of the Congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. "I blame us for not realizing what's happening to us and for doing nothing about it."

Manufacturing nose dive
Prior to China's accession to the World Trade Organization almost a decade ago, free trade proponents argued that the move would create American jobs and eliminate the country's trade deficit. Neither prediction has proven accurate.

The U.S. trade shortfall with China hit a record high $273 billion last year and government data shows some 40 percent of factories with more than 250 employees closed down from 2001 to 2010.

While it can't all be laid at China's door, it is not a coincidence that after decades of more gradual decline, U.S. manufacturing took a nose dive after China's entry into the WTO.

Cheap labor is one huge advantage for China, of course. But numerous academics, former trade officials and labor union officials say predatory trade practices, subsidized exports and other controversial economic policies also make Chinese companies tough to compete against.

And they warn that unless the U.S. works out a way to bolster and promote the sector, future prosperity and America's superpower status will eventually be at risk.

This is only underlined by the U.S. economy's fragile state, with the jobless rate at 8.8 percent, growth tepid, and a huge government budget deficit and debt burden.

Even China's rising production costs may present an increasing threat, they argue. It means that China will be less able to rely on being the cheap maker of textiles, toys, furniture and plastics to create jobs — some of that production is increasingly going to go to places like Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Instead, Beijing is increasingly focused on moving up the chain to higher valued technology-based goods — which puts it in direct competition with the remaining power base of the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Signing own death warrants
And the technology-transfer terms that many big American companies are agreeing to when they do deals in China, and the research centers they are opening up there, means they could in some cases be signing their own death warrants.

Peter Navarro, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of California, who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bust, predicts that the crash America faces if it neglects manufacturing for too long is "going to be far worse."

"Over time the problems Americans are seeing with their economy are only going to get worse as China rises," he said. "We're heading for a collision and the longer that collision is delayed the harder it's going to be."

Still, free trade proponents have warned repeatedly that any protectionist measures would result in a costly trade war that neither side can win. They also argue that the United States has only itself to blame for its economic problems.

In an interview at the Hilton Chicago during Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the city earlier this year, Doug Oberhelman, CEO of heavy equipment maker Caterpillar Inc, which has 11 Caterpillar plants and R&D centers and some 15 percent of its workforce in China, acknowledged there would always be "frictions" between the two countries.

"But the fact is ... we need each other desperately," he said. "We need peace."

Local manufacturers, though, say the first shots have been fired, and they question whether the multinationals are wrongly pursuing a policy of appeasement.

They complain that Chinese companies benefit from a raft of subsidies — from what they see as an undervalued yuan currency, to artificially cheap or even free land in some cases, low-interest loans and even subsidized energy bills — and the U.S. government and major companies say or do little in response.

"We're in the middle of an economic war with China," said Milton Magnus, president of Leeds, Alabama-based M&B Hangers, America's last maker of metal coat hangers, who also destroys his old machines, which are designed and built in-house. "The Chinese want what we have and we're just sitting back and giving it to them."

But it isn't just a war over cheaper products like coat hangers and socks.

Appropriating technology?
Mounting evidence also suggests China is appropriating proprietary technology from Western firms and then using it to compete directly in ever more advanced fields.

The Chinese government has also been accused by foreign businessmen of changing the rules at home to favor local manufacturers for government contracts over foreign competitors.

Small manufacturers say they have increased productivity to compete. Wigwam's Chesebro says he has not replaced staff who retired or moved on over the years, reducing headcount to about 260 from 500 over the past two decades and his machines are now far more efficient.

But small manufacturers insist labor costs are not relevant when in many cases heavily-subsidized goods from China have been sold in America for below what the local manufacturers pay for raw materials.

"Labor costs have nothing to do with it," said Bill Upton, president of Pelham, Alabama-based Vulcan Threaded Products Inc. Vulcan makes steel bars and rods for everything from air conditioning units to sprinkler systems, is the last American firm of its kind, and won a trade case against Chinese competitors in 2008.

"We have a lean, efficient operation and we can compete against anyone in the world on a level playing field. But there's no way we can compete against finished goods that cost less than the raw materials," Upton said.

Even when American manufacturers do successfully pursue cases alleging unfair competition they may not come out on top.

A case can cost around $1 million in legal fees, and often takes more than a year plus a lot of management time that could be spent more productively.

And they claim even after penalties have been imposed, Chinese competitors often merely circumvent customs duties and other barriers by trans-shipping goods through third countries.

Still, free trade proponents point to the example of "Japan Inc" in the 1980s — when there were fears that Japan's rise as a manufacturer threatened future American prosperity — as evidence that concerns over foreign competition can be overblown.

Yet a key difference between "Japan Inc" in the 1980s and "China Inc" is that Japan discouraged foreign investment, whereas China has embraced it.

Back then, some key U.S. multinationals made a great deal of noise in public, and in the U.S. Congress, about unfair Japanese trading practices. Their interests were aligned with the smaller domestic manufacturers.

Making 'a lot of money' off China
But today, multinationals profit hugely from China and have less incentive to rock the boat. Only last week, Yum Brands Inc, the owner of the KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell fast food restaurants, reported its operating profit was 75 percent greater in China than in the U.S. in the first quarter.

"The big difference is that no one made any money off Japan Inc," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "But some people are making a lot of money off China Inc."

Big American companies with investments in China are afraid to criticize Beijing because of the controls it has over just about any access to the Chinese market.

They fear too strident a stance could mean they will lose contracts or even be ostracized as Google Inc was after a dispute with China over censorship and hacking.

"The Chinese government controls all the levers of the economy, from import and export licenses on up," said Victor Shih, an assistant professor of politics at Northwestern University. "There are so many ways for the Chinese government to retaliate it is no surprise businesses are so reluctant to criticize it."

But multinationals and their CEOs have a great deal of influence on debate in Washington and more widely in the country.

They have often lobbied aggressively against any measures they deem protectionist, so their relative silence is seen by many smaller manufacturers and others as weakening the U.S. in its trade relationship with China.

"The issue today is that the firms hurting the most are not as politically connected as the firms that are benefiting the most," Mesirow's Swonk said.

There are no easy answers to America's predicament, for either the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama or the businesses that have bet heavily on China.

The WTO, for instance, ruled on March 11 that the United States could not levy extra duties on Chinese goods that the American government had described as subsidized and unfairly priced.

But such difficulties are not a reason for multinationals to roll over easily in the face of Chinese demands, say critics of their behavior.

'A very dangerous bargain'
Critics and academics warn that multinationals trading technology for market access have frequently found themselves a few years later losing out in export markets to Chinese competitors who were formerly their partners.

"The companies that hand over proprietary technology do so in the hope that they'll be the ones to get the better end of the bargain," said Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "But so far the Chinese have come out ahead in most cases. Hope springs eternal, but it's a very dangerous bargain to make."

The handing over of proprietary technology also raises questions about the impact on U.S. national security, especially in trying to keep the Chinese military from being belligerent toward American allies in the Asia-Pacific region.

In a recent RAND Corp report "Ready for Takeoff: China's Advancing Aerospace Industry," the authors stated there is "no question... that foreign involvement in China's aviation manufacturing industry is contributing to the development of China's military aerospace capabilities."

This contribution, the report later states is "increasing China's ability and possibly its propensity to use force in ways that negatively affect U.S. interests and would increase the costs of resisting attempts to use such force."

Another risk to not talking more openly and directly about America's China problem is that it leaves the field open to extreme rhetoric and populist politics.

A solid majority of Americans in opinion polls say they view China as an economic threat and if America's dysfunctional relationship with the country is not addressed more openly, some fear it could prompt a marked protectionist swing in American politics.

"It would be better to deal with issues like the undervalued renminbi more directly and openly," said Menzie Chinn, a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin. "I am concerned that if these problems are allowed to fester for too long, voters will force Congress into an open trade war. And that would be bad for everybody."

Trump plays China card
For instance, real estate tycoon Donald Trump has been playing the China card as he considers whether to seek nomination as the 2012 Republican presidential candidate, and his support in polls has been rising.

In recent months the garrulous star of NBC's reality show "The Apprentice" has referred to the Chinese in various national television interviews as "enemies" and "abusers" and says that he "would love a trade war with China." He told Reuters he would put a 25 percent tax on all goods from China.

"Saying China is the enemy may sound like an extreme opinion, but it can become a mainstream opinion if uttered in public often enough," said Steven Schier, a politics professor at Carleton College in Minnesota.

It is all a far cry from where things were back in 2000. The debate in the U.S. Congress on normalizing trade relations with China — a step that would help China join the WTO — saw lawmakers, lobby groups and businesses line up to stress that increased trade with China would be a win-win situation for Americans.

"Opening China's markets to U.S. products and services ... is the biggest single step we can take to reduce America's growing trade deficit with China," said Robert Kapp, then president of the U.S.-China Business Council and now a consultant for companies seeking to do business with China, at the time. "We're not talking about a 'gift' for China ... we're talking about bringing home the bacon."

The bacon may have arrived in the form of the profits American companies have been able to make in China but it certainly hasn't for the American workforce.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of U.S. manufacturing jobs fell by a third to 8.1 million from 12.2 million during the past decade — more jobs lost than in the previous two decades combined.

BLS data also show that from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2010, a full 39 percent of U.S. manufacturing plants with more than 250 employees closed.

U.S. not the 'winner'
Chinese membership of the WTO has been a disaster for local manufacturers, says Charles Blum, president of trade consulting firm International Advisory Services Group Ltd and an official at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative under President Ronald Reagan.

"It doesn't really matter how small your manufacturing operation is, the sector is systematically being hollowed out," he said. "We figured the global market would take care of itself and that as a result the United States would turn out to be the winner. But it hasn't quite worked out that way."

Small businesses have traditionally been the backbone of America's economy, providing at least half the jobs, hiring more quickly when a recovery begins after a recession, and accounting for many more patents per employee than large firms.

Henry "Hank" Nothhaft, a serial entrepreneur and currently CEO of Tessera Technologies Inc, which specializes in miniaturization technologies for electronic devices, says most innovation occurs on the factory floor, so he worries that American innovation will slide with the erosion of the country's manufacturing base.

"If the manufacturing ecosystem goes, then innovation and engineering go with it," he said. "This means that future innovation is going to occur over in China and not here in the United States."

Meanwhile, the Chinese, if anything, have been getting more demanding.

Some business leaders and academics have noticed that the Chinese government's industrial strategy became more aggressive from 2006 onwards.

New rules "seek to appropriate technology from foreign multinationals" in key industries like avionics, power generation and high-speed rail, according to a December 2010 article for the Harvard Business Review called "China vs the World," by academics Thomas Hout and Pankaj Ghemawat.

"These rules limit investment by foreign companies as well as their access to China's markets, stipulate a high degree of local content in equipment produced in the country, and force the transfer of proprietary technologies from foreign companies to their joint ventures with China's state-owned enterprises. The new regulations are complex and ever changing."

Distracted by the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, governments and multinationals have only really become aware of this shift in Chinese policy over the past year or so, Hout, a former partner at the Boston Consulting Group, said in a telephone interview.

"The Chinese have managed to time this beautifully," he said. "Even people like myself who have really been paying attention were caught out and it's only been clear for the past year or so what's going on."

Getting a good deal?
A growing number of Western firms who thought they were getting a good deal by trading technology for access to China's market have also belatedly found out that they were mistaken.

In 2004 and 2005, China set up partnerships with Kawasaki Heavy Industries, France's Alstom, Germany's Siemens and Canada's Bombardier to build high-speed trains for China.

At first Kawasaki exported finished trains, then the group of foreign companies subcontracted the production of basic components to Chinese train manufacturer Sifang and then assembled them in China.

Then in 2009 the government began requiring that prospective bidders for Chinese high-speed rail projects form minority joint ventures with state-run manufacturers and hand over their latest designs and that 70 percent of the equipment had to be produced locally.

While aware of the flow of technology to the Chinese side, Kawasaki saw its joint venture as an opportunity to gain access to China, which was rapidly expanding its high-speed rail network. China has been by a long way the world's largest market for new rail lines in recent years.

Now, Chinese companies build faster, cheaper trains than their former mentors make and compete against them in global markets.

Kawasaki has complained that trains built by Sifang are based on its own technology. Similarly, Siemens was elbowed aside by its erstwhile partner, the China National Railway Signal and Communication Corp, when it came to constructing the high-profile Beijing-Shanghai high-speed link.

Other times, technology is pilfered. Glen Tellock, CEO of crane maker Manitowoc, says that while American companies find intellectual property theft a major problem, "the answer from the Chinese is always 'what's the harm?'"

In "China vs the World," Hout and Ghemawat write that Chinese firms have "come to dominate the global silicon-wafer-panel business, aided by low-cost financing and inexpensive land sales."

Local governments provide companies with land cheaply or even free. Chinese firms are provided land grants in excess of what they need, so they build apartment buildings on the land, which then pays for research costs and offsets start-up losses. State-owned banks provide Chinese firms with loans at below prevailing interest rates and sometimes local governments pay the interest on their behalf.

Solar panel prices cut in half
Hout and Ghemawat also examine the solar panel industry, an area that the Obama administration has championed as a way to create "green" jobs for the future.

But Chinese competition pushed solar panel prices down 50 percent in 2010 from 2009, hurting Western manufacturers. China now exports most of its solar panels and Chinese firms control half of the German market and a third of the U.S. market.

China's Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd is the world's largest solar panel maker. while Yingli Green Energy and JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd are also major competitors in the industry.

Hout says China is now seeking to catch up with Western firms in the aviation and power generation industries.

In January, General Electric Co. announced a joint venture with Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) to develop electronics for the C919, a single-aisle commercial jetliner. That raised concerns that GE runs the risk of creating Chinese competitors through the proprietary technology it will provide as part of that joint venture.

"Multinationals are a little too optimistic about how much they can control the technology transfer process," the Brookings Institution's Prasad said. "The Chinese are very keen to build up their aviation industry and they've made it very clear what they want from GE to make that happen."

In a January 19 interview with Reuters, CEO Jeff Immelt, who also heads Obama's jobs council, insisted the company was "not naive or stupid" about doing business in China.

"We really do think a lot about it," he said. "There is a multitude of ways to succeed in China. It's going to be the biggest economy in the world. The only question is when."

This tone differed markedly from comments Immelt made in July last year at a private dinner in Rome — remarks that caused him no little trouble.

"I really worry about China," he told a group of executives, as reported by the Financial Times. "I am not sure that in the end they want any of us to win, or any of us to be successful."

GE initially contested the FT report then changed tack when a spokesman said Immelt's remarks "do not represent our views."

Behind the scenes there does appear to be mounting worry among U.S. multinationals over Chinese policy.

Technology theft
A report commissioned by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce ("China's Drive for 'Indigenous Innovation': A Web of Industrial Policies") examines a Chinese plan for science and technology from 2006 to 2020 that is "considered by many international technology companies to be a blueprint for technology theft on a scale the world has never seen before."

"Indigenous innovation" refers to a Chinese government policy designed, among other things, to favor Chinese firms for state contracts and require technology transfer if Western companies want to participate.

"With these indigenous innovation industrial policies, it is very clear that China has switched from defense to offense," the chamber report said.

During his state visit here in January, China's Hu said the country would ease up on the program. The U.S. government has since publicly stated China needs to make good on that promise, though so far it is not clear that anything has yet changed.

What has also not changed is how keen American multinationals are to get into China, even if there are long-term concerns over the conditions attached to doing business there. And their willingness to keep silent about things they do not like.

Ralph Gomory, a research professor at New York University's Stern School of Business who worked for IBM for three decades, said the problem for U.S. multinationals is that the focus on short-term profit easily outweighs long-term worries.

"The Chinese are exploiting our weaknesses," he said. "They see the strength of America as the strength of our corporations and that the driver is profit. So they have merely said bring your plant over here and we'll make sure you make a big profit."

It means that shareholders of the American multinationals like Caterpillar may be doing well in the short term — after all its share price has doubled in less than a year largely on demand from China and other emerging markets.

However, middle class Americans have not seen the benefits in terms of jobs created or wages increased.

When asked about GE's recently announced Chinese avionics joint venture and how he would look at it if he held GE shares, the Brookings Institution's Prasad said, "If I had GE shares in my 401(k) that I intended to hold for the next 20 years, I would be very worried," he said. "But if I was just holding them for short-term gain I wouldn't be concerned. And I suspect that's also how people inside GE look at it."

'Huge market'
For their part, the Chinese tend to view technology transfer as being fair trade for access to its growing manufacturing base and its potential as a consumer market of 1.3 billion people.

"The Chinese response is typically that multinationals have come to China because it has a huge market," Northwestern's Shih said. "The Chinese say that in doing so 'you have implicitly signed up for technology transfer as the price of entry to that market.'"

Criticism of subsidies also tends to fall flat as the Chinese point to subsidies for key industries and the farming sector in Europe and the U.S. as proof that they are not alone in supporting their own interests.

Rejection of Chinese bids for a number of American companies on national security grounds, including California oil company Unocal, have also allowed Beijing to allege that Washington has protectionist policies.

Certainly there is a sense that after many years of humiliation at the hands of foreign nations — in particular in the 19th century when China was forced, in the words of the late British economist Angus Maddison, to cede a "welter of colonial enclaves" — that the Chinese are merely returning to their place as a top power.

Just as many in the United States believe in "American exceptionalism," or the idea that the country is inherently superior to the rest of the world, the Chinese see a return to the top as their destiny.

"The Chinese feel they are returning to the level they were at 500 years ago and that it's where they belong," said Eamonn Fingleton, a writer who has been following China since the 1980s. "China sees no reason why it should not be the world's number one power."

And there are those in the United States who say that rather than fear competition from China, America should embrace and welcome it because the country's rise has been accompanied by cheap consumer goods that have kept a lid on inflation.

"The Chinese are going to move up the supply chain but they are not a threat to us," said Dan Griswold, who specializes in trade at the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank. "China merely wants to regain its rightful place among the leading economies of the world."

But there are a growing number of groups that seek to address what they say is America's China problem, and they are bringing together manufacturers, agricultural groups, labor unions and even the occasional local chamber of commerce.

'Free but fair trade'
"We believe in free but fair trade," said Tony Paglia, vice president for government affairs at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber of Commerce in northeastern Ohio, of the chamber's backing for proposed legislation that would impose duties on goods from countries that manipulated their currencies. "All we want is a level playing field for our members."

As well as handing over technology, multinationals like GE and Caterpillar have increasingly moved research and development to China, and experts like Hout worry that will cause America to lose its innovative edge.

"I'm afraid that they've managed to lure us into a bit of a trap," Hout said. "The Chinese are merely using a much older playbook and are holding our multinationals hostage."

Although American spending on R&D ($402 billion in 2010) is quadruple China's ($103 billion), Hout and Ghemawat estimate that at current growth levels China will catch up with U.S. spending by 2020. Factoring in what they estimate could be a 40 percent undervaluation for the yuan, they estimate that spending parity will come by 2016.

The real problem for America is that it has few easy alternatives when it comes to solving its Chinese puzzle and leveling that field.

Pressuring the Chinese government to allow the yuan to revalue seems a straightforward solution, for example, and is one that U.S. administrations have been suggesting for some time. Economists say a substantial revaluation would make a sizable dent in the U.S. trade and current account deficits.

But there would be a downside as well as positive consequences for Corporate America.

The large number of U.S. multinationals producing goods in China for export means that any significant appreciation would hurt their profits, said Sunil Chopra, a professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.

One politically sensitive consequence of an appreciation of the yuan could also come in the form of higher prices for consumers at retail stores, which would hurt poorer people hardest. "We get a major rise in import prices from China, who does it hurt the most?" Mesirow's Swonk asked. "People who shop at Walmart and Target."

Hout said that although the Obama administration has been more vocal about problem issues with China than his predecessor George W. Bush, America needs to take far bolder action.

"The United States is so wedded to the multinational processes of the WTO, which take forever and provide only rifle shot results," he said. "We've got all this stuff fleeing the United States and we've been very inactive when it comes to playing hardball."

"The obvious reaction would be to rely on reciprocity," he added. "If the Chinese insist that American firms have to form joint ventures in China and have to adhere to local content requirements, then the U.S. government should enact requirements for Chinese firms wishing to ship goods here that they must do likewise. But we've seen nothing from the U.S. government."

Getting tough
Others recommend getting tougher with China in the same way President Reagan got tough with Japan at times, by being willing to impose more customs duties or file more cases through bodies like the WTO.

Reagan, with the backing of his Commerce Secretary Malcolm Baldrige and a number of CEOs angry over Japanese trade policy, was unafraid to impose duties on Japanese goods. Reagan also brokered a semiconductor trade agreement with Japan that prevented the dumping of Japanese semiconductors on the U.S. market.

"They (Reagan and Baldrige) were the most activist leaders for a long time in defending U.S. manufacturing and took action necessary to do so," said Gil Kaplan, an international trade lawyer who worked in the Reagan administration. "They realized that we need a manufacturing sector in the United States."

Kaplan said that although proponents of free trade fear a trade war with China would be inevitable if the U.S. government took a tougher line on unfair subsidies, "we need to demonstrate that we are not afraid to take action."

"We do have to act now," he said. "At some point in time we're going to reach a tipping point where we won't be able to come back. In some industries so much of the supply chain has gone that it's going to be difficult to come back."

Kaplan and others say the government's actions do not necessarily have to be limited to taking action against the Chinese, but could take the form of greater support for American manufacturers.

Don't 'focus on the negative'
A common practice in developed nations, for instance, is to have a Value Added Tax that provides manufacturers with tax rebates as an added incentive to export goods.

"We don't just have to focus on the negative," said Tessera's Nothhaft. "We can find ways to support our own companies and make the playing field a little more level."

For many local manufacturers, the lack of a real public debate is discouraging to say the least. They feel disenfranchised, outgunned and outmaneuvered by the influential U.S. multinationals who argue for more free trade while small manufacturers want fair trade as well.

"The politicians in Washington don't represent you and me, they represent the special interests who pay their bills," said Richard Gill, president of Polyfab Corp, a plastic molding company in Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. "Our decline is not inevitable. We can still turn this around. But things are going to get a lot worse if we don't do the right things to stop it."

Carleton College's Schier said "increased middle-class radicalism" shown by the power of the conservative Tea Party movement will likely be followed by increased radicalism in general as more voters are hurt by the decline of manufacturing and the lack of jobs more than two years after the height of the financial crisis.

"America's political elite would rather not give the debate much oxygen because they haven't come up with any real solutions," Schier said. "But the majority of the public has a sense there's something very wrong with our relations with China."

"It's a prescription for chronic instability," he said. "You can't build a long-term working majority in a situation like this. Voters are going to zig and zag and we'll likely see backlash after backlash."