The Arctic melt is uncovering more than just resources and trade
routes – it is also opening up a whole new theatre of military
operations.
Of all the world’s territorial disputes, the ones in the Arctic – and
there are plenty – used to matter the least: the only prize at stake was
frozen ocean, and most of the time it was too cold for military forces
to operate there anyway. National boundaries were left to blur among the
floes.
Suddenly those vague Arctic territories matter. The region is
increasingly ice-free and the open ocean means rich fishing, undersea
mineral and energy resources and new sea lanes. The Arctic, in other
words, has become a valuable commodity.
Best placed to assert ownership are the “Arctic Five”, littoral Arctic
Ocean states with well-established territorial claims and regional
bases. “Russia and Norway are the two states most active and deliberate
in raising their capacity for operating in the Arctic,” says Ernie
Regehr, senior fellow in Arctic security at the Simons Foundation – a
Canadian think-tank. Canada, Regehr says, made some “dramatic
announcements regarding enhanced military capacity in the north”, but
these have since run up against financial realities, while the US has
been too preoccupied elsewhere to devote much energy to revamping its
Arctic presence.
Russia is arguably doing the most: its North Sea Fleet is being
restocked and is due to receive a new Mistral-class amphibious assault
ship from France; six new $1.1bn (€816m) icebreakers, which, at 170
metres in length, will be the world’s biggest; and later new aircraft
carriers. The Norwegians, meanwhile, have procured a new fleet of five
Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates, which, together with its six Ula-class
submarines, have significantly boosted its naval clout.
Yet it would be misleading to suggest that an Arctic arms race is
underway. Bases are being upgraded, ice-breaking fleets expanded and
modernised, and Arctic battalions retrained and uparmed. But the sheer
remoteness of the Arctic makes conflict almost unthinkable, says Regehr.
“Military preparedness in the Arctic is really only meaningful if it
enhances a capacity to contribute effectively to search and rescue,
emergency response and support for public safety,” he says, citing a
“universal insistence” among the Arctic Five that any competition will
remain amicable.
New interest in the Arctic threatens to make it a crowded place,
however.The Arctic Council – which already includes Finland, Iceland and
Sweden in addition to the Five – voted in May to admit several new
observer members, including China, India and Japan. Of these, China has
taken the keenest interest: in 2012 its sole icebreaker, Xuelong,
completed the first transarctic voyage by a Chinese vessel and a new
$200m (€150m) icebreaker is due for delivery in 2014, with additional
ships planned, as Beijing seeks to open up the High North as a conduit
for Chinese trade.
Regehr is optimistic that these new players can be peacefully
accommodated. “The risks are not China or India specifically,” he says.
The concern is that more and more ships will be operating in waters
which will remain dangerous even as they become navigable. “Human and
commercial activity are in a sharply ascending arch; so too are the
risks.” — (M)
Five Arctic Flaspoints: Territorial Disputes
1) The Barents Sea: Cold War rivals Norway and Russia
settled their decades-old Barents Sea
border dispute in 2010. However,
the subsequent discovery of huge oil and
gas deposits on Norway’s side
of the
line has left some Russians questioning
whether they’re getting
their full share.
2) The Bering Strait: China plans to start using the
Arctic as
a key trade route to cut long-distance
transit times. But
ships must access the
region via the Bering Strait – a narrow
chokepoint
between Russia and Alaska. A blockade of this chokepoint would be an
obvious play should conflict arise between China and another power.
3) Greenland: The retreat of the icecap covering
Greenland – an autonomous territory that is part of Denmark – is
attracting foreign firms keen to exploit the island’s resources. But
commercial pressures are making it a contentious place to operate, while
over-exploitation of its fragile environment could stir up trouble
between local Inuit people, foreign business and the Danish government.
4) The North Pole: Ever since a Russian submarine
planted a national flag on the seabed at the Pole in 2007, ownership of
the High North has been a contentious issue. The Pole itself matters
much less than the vast hydrocarbon resources thought to lie beneath it.
Canada, Denmark, Russia and the US all have overlapping claims based on
their conflicting interpretations of the maritime borders.
5) The Northwest Passage: Melting sea ice has opened
up the fabled Northwest Passage, which runs along northern Canada and
links the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. But while Canada claims
sovereignty over the route, citing its proximity to the Canadian coast,
other Arctic claimants – plus China – say the Passage is in
international waters. As more ships ply the route, Canada must choose
whether to enforce its claim or bow to pressure...
